North West Shelf / Pilbara are a rapidly progressing economic region. Australia’s largest oil and gas reserves are located along Pilbara coast. The mineral and petroleum exports from the region have increased from Aus. $ 4.1 billion to Aus$ 84 billion between 1999 – 2012, amounting to 5.5% of Australia’s total GDP which amounts to 50% of New Zealand’s GDP and greater than the individual GDPs of 123 of the world’s 185 nation states. With expected increase to Aus$ 120 billion by 2015, it will rise to 7.5% of GDP.1 By 2020, the region is expected to become significant part of nation’s economy. Despite the economic boom, the Australian Defence Force (ADF) maintains a low profile in the region. Senator Eggleston (Defence Foreign Affairs and Trade Committee) has also raised the issue of ADF presence in the area. He has also reminded that disruption in 1970 due to labour strikes led to uncertainty of exports to Japanese investors and they preferred Brazil rather than Pilbara.2 Due to economic impact and protection of resource trade and Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs) from the region is of strategic importance. Any disruption in the free flow of trade from the region will adversely affect the national economy and repute. In order to protect the vital region, short and long term measures are required. Since these measures are in line with strategic guidance with minimal financial implications compared to economic benefit of the region, they are economically and politically viable.
Environment and Threats
The Pilbara region stretches from Northern Territory to Indian Ocean in the west covering approximately 507,896 square kilometres (including offshore islands), which represents nearly twenty percent of Western Australia’s landmass.3 The resident population includes Australians, expatriates and indigenous communities. Due to shortage of accommodation, most of the workforce is Fly in Fly out (FIFO). There are different schemes by various corporate organizations to engage indigenous communities into workforce and community development programmes. The region has remained peaceful in the recent past. The security of infrastructure and various industries is managed by combined efforts of state government and investors. The crime rate is also low in the area. Currently, the state and territory police have legal jurisdiction upon onshore facilities up to three nautical miles in territorial waters. Australian Customs is the lead agency for protection of offshore installations against non-military threats. The ADF maintains intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capability in the area and participate in Whole of Government Approach to security. The nearest foreign land is Kupang City (Indonesia) at 1000 NM. So threat to critical infrastructure in any interstate conflict against Australia remains a remote possibility without adequate strategic warning. Onshore facilities are accessible and vulnerable whereas offshore facilities although less accessible, remain susceptible to people smugglers, issue motivated groups and terrorists. Due to remoteness of the area, smaller resident community and larger transient workforce, an internal threat to Pilbara region is also unlikely. Any terrorist attack, sabotage or non-traditional threats like pandemics, supply chain disruption can have a devastating effect on international resource trade and domestic energy flow.4 Due to hot and humid environment, shortage of accommodation and heavy reliance on expansive/ transient workforce, automation has provided solution to many problems. Increasing number of trains, trucks, cranes and offshore platforms are remotely controlled and monitored from head office (Perth) or regional offices.5 In such a scenario, a physical attack on any such facility may not be required; Cyber-attack on command and management systems may have devastating impact on the system.
Current ADF Assets
ADF maintains presence in region through permanent and reserve units, aircraft surveillance sorties, patrolling by naval patrol crafts and regional exercises. The Pilbara Regiment is stationed near Karratha6, while North West Mobile Force (NORFORCE) is responsible for coastal areas and off shore islands in Kimberly region.7 Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) ‘bare bases’ Learmonth is located on North West Cape and Curtin is near Derby. Operations from Learmonth can support North West Shelf. The Royal Australian Navy (RAN) patrol boats routinely patrol the region and assist Australian Customs. Operation RESOLUTE is ADF participation in Whole of Government approach to security of Australian Borders and Maritime regions. Armidale Class Patrol Boats (ACPB), AP3C maritime patrol aircraft, large fleet units and Regional Force Surveillance Units (RFSU) are the major contributors.
The ADF Posture Review conducted during 2012 concluded that although ADF maintains significant level of presence in the region, public realization in this regard remains a grey area. The government desires to implement the recommendations of ADF Force Posture 2012 through Defence Capability Plan (DCP) and Major Capital Facilities Program (MCFP). Although the location of Fleet Base East and West will remain at Sydney and Perth, the infrastructure at NW shelf will be upgraded to accommodate RAN units. The government also plans to improve the facilities at Cocos Islands to support KC-30 air to air refuelling tanker and P-8I Poseidon operations. Additionally, airfields at Learmonth and Curtin will be upgraded for Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) operations.
In order to deliberate upon the threats to the security of the vital region, a strategic level war game was also conducted in 2012. Assessment of civil and logistic infrastructure by Joint Logistic Command is also in progress to improve the facilities for subsequent utilization by ADF. To enhance ADF knowledge about the region, frequent visits are being conducted at various levels. A group of Australian National University (ANU) faculty members visited the area for familiarisation. Subsequently a group of Faculty and students (Australians and overseas) also visited the region in October 2013. The group also attended regional economic exhibition and seminar ‘Pilbara Pulse 2013’. Similar activities will continue in near future to influence participants of such exhibitions. Presently different single service activities are in progress, however, a joint activity involving ADF and US Marines from Darwin is being planned in 2014.
Future Opportunity Costs and risks
The ADF visibility is required to be increased to reassure the regional population, business community and deter potential aggressor that region is well safeguarded. According to strategic guidance provided by Defence White Paper 2013, ‘a secure Australia’ is the fundamental strategic interest. It means;
Defence of Australia against direct armed attack, including attacks by hostile states and by non-state adversaries who possess substantial capabilities – including weapons of mass destruction. The scope of this strategic interest encompasses defence against attacks on continental Australia, our maritime territory, our offshore territories and the critical sea lanes in our approaches. It includes security against major cyber-attacks on Australia beyond the capacity of civil Agencies to counter, and Australia’s assured access to space systems.8
Based on the strategic guidance, the principal task assigned to ADF is to ‘Deter and defeat armed attacks on Australia’.9 The strategic guidance also acknowledges, ‘Although a direct armed attack on Australia remains unlikely, its consequences would be so serious that the possibility must be given priority in our defence planning’.10 Based on the strategic guidance, ADF has to be prepared to meet the challenges of current and future security environment. The review of the ADF presence and activities in the area dictates that existing level of engagement may be sufficient in current economic and security situation, the future growth of the region and its impact on national and regional economies requires enhanced ADF presence in the region. While the prevailing security situation makes it difficult of digest, the ‘risk based approach’ commensurate to economic significance of the region makes it easy to accept. It is important to mention that petroleum and mineral exports from the region are expected to increase to Aus$ 120 billion by 2015, amounting to 7.5% of Australian GDP. With such large stakes involved, any disruption in the energy and resource trade will be detrimental to national economy and repute.
Based on the requirements to increase the ADF presence in the area, it important to review the financial implications involved in the movement of units. A planned move of 7RAR from Darwin to Edinburgh (3000 KM) costs Aus$ 620 million.11 On the same scale, a movement from Darwin to Karratha (2700 KM) will cost Aus$ 558 million. In existing economic benefit from the area, the movement cost is less than one per cent. Similarly, according to 1990 calculation, Army Presence in North (APIN) housing and facilities were estimated to be Aus$ 1.1 billion. Similarly a movement of navy from Sydney to Jervis Bay was estimated to be Aus$ 2 billion in 1995. Keeping in view the inflation rates, the estimated amount to establish naval base is not likely to be more than the five per cent of expected economic benefit from the area.12 However, any movement from existing ADF bases will involve financial implications and capability gaps in the existing areas. As ADF will start withdrawing from Afghanistan by the end of this year, the deployment of battle hardened military force in strategically important region will reflect government resolve about protection of vital area. In order to address the issue, it is recommended to have a two pronged approach involving long term (10-15 years) and short term (3-5 years) measures.
In short term, the defence engagement is to be increased and potential risk is to be mitigated. As the most likely threat is a terrorist threat, stationing of quick response team from special operations forces is an immediate priority for efficient response in any such incident. ADF engagement in the region can be enhanced by study tours of training classes at all levels and high level visits to public and private organizations. Major exercises involving joint forces, port visits and community support activities by major fleet units will increase ADF engagement at grass root level. The short term measures will familiarize the region to ADF members at all domains and reassure the community about ADF priorities about area.
In long term, the force enhancement and capability building is required to establish a permanent foothold in the area. A joint ADF base in Pilbara region by 2025 will be a major enabler in this regard. A permanent base capable to accommodate needs of all three services will reassure current and future investors and residents about the security of vital area. In case of port calls by larger fleet units, initially they can be accommodated in anchorages and subsequently dedicated berths may be constructed. The base will also be used to enhance ongoing Whole of the Government efforts in the area. It is considered that cumulatively the proposed measures will familiarize ADF members with the region, reassure the residents and investors and build national infrastructure to influence wider Indo-Pacific region.
In conclusion, the Pilbara/ North West shelf region is progressing rapidly. Within a short span of 12 years, regional economic benefit has increased more than 20 times, accounting to 5% of national GDP. With the increasing demand in mineral resources, and increased interest by national and international investors, the region is likely to progress tremendously. The region has remained stable without any threat from state and non-state actors. While ADF is contributing to Whole of the Government efforts to security in the region, permanent ADF presence remains thin. Based on the economic impact of the area, the region has strategic importance for political and military levels. In order to reassure the regional community and investors about the protection of vital area, a short term and long term approach in required. While short term measures focus on risk mitigation and visible effects within 3-5 years, long term measures are aimed to enhance ADF capacity and capability in the region to establish permanent foot print by 2025. As movement of existing forces to the region will involve financial implication and capability gap in the current deployment area. It has been argued ADF returning forces from Afghanistan can be used as an enabler in this regard. The stationing of battle hardened forces in strategically vital region will enable ADF to retain important capabilities. It will also show political will and ADF resolve for protection of the area. As currently no major ADF base is located in the area, a joint infrastructure will be an important enabler in this regard.
End Notes
1 International Monetary Fund’s list of GDP – 2012, Pilbara Futures Presentation by Pilbara Development Commission to visiting team of students, October 02, 2013.
2 Senator Alan Eggleston, Senator for Western Australia, Chair of the Foreign Affairs, Defence
and Trade References Committee.
3 Western Australian Department of Regional Development and Lands, 2010.
4 In 2008, two incidents highlighted the importance of continuous energy flow. The disruption of Karratha gas supplies in January 2008 and Industrial accident on Varanus Island in June 2008 interrupted the flow of gas to Perth and South West Region.
5 During the authors visit to area, the information was presented by Rio Tinto.
6 With squadrons located at Exmouth and Port Headland. The unit’s area of responsibility stretches from Shark Bay to Broome in the Kimberley region.
7 The Kimberly squadron is located in Broome with depots in Derby and Kununurra. Army training centre is situated in Yampi close to Derby.
8 Defence White Paper 2013, para 3.9.
9 DWP 2013, para 3.31.
10 DWP 2013, para 3.11.
11 Andrew Davies Presentation, ADF Force Posture and Preparedness, October 9, 2013.
12 Since 1990, the gold prices have increased from $400 to $1349 per Ounce (3.5 times). On the similar scale, the estimates to move units are expected to rise upto four times. http://www.usagold.com/reference/prices/2013.html
