Gap between Pakistan’s state policy and public aspirations in the context of Pak-US relations is quite wide. Moreover, public sentiment is hostile about the areas of divergence, and indifferent regarding areas of convergence. Most important issue that America and Pakistan are conjointly seized with at the moment is post 2014 Afghanistan. And this is the area where gap between public sentiment and state policy is the maximum. After meeting Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, Kerry said they had agreed to re-establish a “full partnership.”
“I want to emphasise the relationship is not defined simply by the threats we face, it is not only a relationship about combating terrorism, it is about supporting the people of Pakistan, particularly helping at this critical moment for Pakistan’s economic revival,” Kerry told reporters. ‘It is also no secret that along this journey in the last few years we’ve experienced a few differences,” Kerry added.
Of drone attacks, Kerry said, “I think the President (Obama) has a very real timeline and we hope it’s going to be very, very soon.” However, Michael Kugelman, an analyst at the ‘Woodrow Wilson International Centre’, said he believed Washington had no intention of ending drone strikes in Pakistan before the end of 2014. Back home, US officials also immediately sought to downplay Kerry’s remarks. US State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said that the number of drone strikes had declined owing to the drawdown of American troops from Afghanistan and because of progress in curtailing the al Qaeda threat. “Today the secretary referenced the changes that we expect to take place in that programme over the course of time, but there is no exact timeline to provide,” she stated. On the other side, when asked whether Pakistan wanted the United States to curtail the strikes, foreign affairs adviser, Sartaj Aziz, said, “We are asking them to stop it, not just curtail it.”
As a matter of policy, America is scaling back the weapon launching usage of drones, the World over, while expanding their surveillance role. US drone strikes in Pakistan have fallen significantly over the past 2 1/2 years, totalling 17 so far this year, versus 48 in all of 2012 and 73 in 2011, according to the data compiled by the New America Foundation.
Kerry announced the re-launching of the US-Pakistan Strategic Dialogue, focused on security, economic and development issues, which broke down in 2010. Pakistan’s Energy minister has said that Secretary Kerry has indicated about the possibility of Civil Nuclear deal between the two countries akin to the Indo-US Agreement 123. Kerry said that the US will extend every possible assistance to Pakistan to help it execute more power projects and overcome energy crisis.
It was Kerry’s first visit to Pakistan as Secretary of State, although he has visited the country in other capacities before. He is known for his comparatively soft corner for Pakistan. He was instrumental in pushing through a controversial five year US aid plan to Pakistan notoriously remembered as called Kerry-Lugar Bill (Kerry Lugar Burman Act). This legislation became quite unpopular in Pakistan due to intrusive implementation and monitoring strings attached to it. Though, out of the US$ 7 billion, nearly half has already been disbursed, it has not improved America’s public rating in Pakistan.
Of Afghanistan, Secretary Kerry said the fates of Pakistan and Afghanistan were intertwined and both the countries need to undertake united efforts to resolve the issue of safe havens. His visit focused on ways to revive deadlocked Doha talks and coordinate broader efforts to stabilise Afghanistan as US-led foreign forces prepare to pull out most of their combat troops by late 2014. He said a peaceful Afghanistan was in the interest of not only Pakistan, but also for the entire region. He also acknowledged that 40,000 Pakistanis had sacrificed their lives in the ongoing war against terrorism. He said Pakistan needs to overcome the extremist threats from within.
While the issue of extremist groups operating in Pakistan was a priority for the talks, the US Congress was told about American contradictions while handling the Taliban in Afghanistan. Mr. John Sopko Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, in a covering letter accompanying a 236 page report (SIGAR audit 13-15) wrote: “I am deeply troubled that the US military can pursue, attack and even kill terrorists and their supporters, but that some in the US government believe we cannot prevent these same people from receiving a government contract”. He identified 46 such cases in his report!
Another point of contention between the two counties is Iran-Pakistan gas pipe line project. America has been pressuring Pakistan to abandon the project which Pakistan signed with Iran in 2009. When this project was signed, natural gas was not part of the US sanctions’ statute; it was added to the sanctions list in 2013. America has shown flexibility towards implementing sanction law with India and other Central Asian republics, who are currently meeting their energy needs from Iran. For IP project, this law is any way not relevant, because agreement was signed before the amended American law was enacted.
Bilateral relations between the two countries are poised to stay tumultuous for short to medium term. On its part Pakistan is making all out effort to bridge the gap between the Afghan Taliban and America on one hand and Afghan Taliban and Karzai administration on the other hand. As the time is running out, Taliban, America and Karzai government need to narrow down their perceptional gaps about post 2014 Afghanistan.
It is in the interest of America and Pakistan to sustain functional bilateral relationship and cooperate in stabilizing Afghanistan. It is a complicated and important relationship. Both, the US and Pakistan have much to gain in fixing their relationship. Pakistan needs US investment, and the US needs stability in Pakistan as it strives to affect a sustainable transition in Afghanistan.
America owes a responsibility to the international community to leave behind a stable Afghanistan. Alongside America, onus also squarely rests on the United Nations Security Council. It authorised the entry of foreign forces in to Afghanistan, it must come forth to manage the fallout of exit of these forces. UNSC should start its in-house deliberations to evolve a backup contingency plan to induct its peace keeping mission if America-Taliban-Karzai rapprochement does not materialise. In such an eventuality, the 2014 elections in Afghanistan should be under UN supervision. Pakistan and America need to discuss this eventuality and formulate a timeline based workable plan of action to take UNSC on board, say by mid 2014.
Kugelman has rightly assessed: “Behind the bonhomie, trouble lurks…Instead of depicting Kerry’s Pakistan visit as a prelude to an extended period of goodwill, we should simply regard it as a respite from the tensions.”
