Wednesday, November 27, 2024

Third Time Lucky?

Twice Mian Nawaz Sharif was unjustifiably stopped from completing his stipulated term as PM, he has now taken oath of office again. Acquiring a “heavy mandate” in his 1997 comeback, Mian Sahib proceeded to do all the things he should not have, mostly getting rid of anybody who he thought stood in his way to absolute power. The most fatal mistake of all, forcing the resignation of Gen Jahangir Karamat the COAS Pakistan Army, than compounding it by superseding Lt Gen Ali Kuli Khan, one of the most upright professional officers of the Pakistan Army, to make third-in-line Musharraf the COAS. The inevitable thereafter was only a matter of time. He certainly has bad memories of being led handcuffed from the PM’s official residence, reportedly chosing not to live in the PM’s House this time. Mian Sahib seems to have forgiven the Lt Gen Mahmud (than Commander 10 Corps), who physically led the coup while Musharraf was still in the air and quite sadistically subjected a serving PM to unnecessary humiliation.

Has Mian Sahib learnt some lessons from the 14 years spent out in the cold? He may have failed to effectively oppose Zardari’s misdoings during the last 5 years, nevertheless he is a million times better than the Asif Zardari-Salman Faruqi duo who ran this country into the ground. Despite the 18th Amendment, PMs Jilani and Ashraf were mere puppets controlled from the Presidency. Fortunately, to quote Ansar Abbasi, “Zardari is now simply another Fazal Elahi Chaudhry.” While the buck stops at President Zardari’s desk for wrongdoing across the broad spectrum of governance, it was Faruqi, the ultimate bureaucrat insider, who meticulously and systematically destroyed many institutions. Suspended in 1973 by Dr Mubashir Hasan, PPP’s first finance Minister, for corruption, Faruqi’s appointment as Federal Ombudsman was a very deliberate and contemptuous slap by Zardari to the name of truth and integrity. The august office being occupied by such a dishonest man is not only a matter of shame for honest society but an abomination. Thankfully the Supreme Court (SC) has taken suo-moto notice of this aberration. Military coups are not made in heaven, they take place when it becomes difficult to swallow such horrors being inflicted by “democracy” upon the nation.

Mian Nawaz Sharif scored big in public perception by choosing not to fall for Maulana Fazlur Rahman’s bait aimed at sabotaging PTI’s bid to make the Provincial government in KPK. Sacrificing PML (N)’s electoral right despite having the maximum seats. nominating Dr. Malik of National Party (NP) for Chief Minister Balochistan and the giving the choice of Governorship to PKMAP is an amazing first in Pakistan’s rather selfish democratic history, a giant step for unifying Balochistan into the Federation.

Reportedly seeking the best talent available to run the public sector entities eating up the revenues badly needed for development, PML (N)’s first priority should be to re-constitute Boards of Directors of PIA, CAA, Railways, Pakistan Steel, OGDC, etc the list of institutions taken to the cleaners is endless. Men of stature, integrity and competence should supervise the good management necessary to rescue and revitalize the public sector. The first few ministerial appointments are generally men of some competence. If they operate without vested interest, personal likes or dislikes, this country will soon be back on track.

Our relationship with the US needs addressing positively. Orderly withdrawal from Afghanistan post-2014 is the major US concern, moreover they do not want a vacuum in Afghanistan. Wary of Pakistan’s “ambitions”, the US has no choice but to accept that Pakistan has to fill that space. There is a sea-change from the turn of the century in the Pakistani mindset about Afghanistan, far from giving us “strategic depth” all Afghanistan gives us is “strategic headache”. Geography dictates its problem will continue spilling over into Pakistan, we cannot disengage even if we wanted to, only an economically strong Pakistan can withstand this pressure. Without overcoming our energy shortages, economic revival is a pipedream, The US must show understanding over the Pak-Iran gas pipeline, TAPI is unlikely through war-torn Afghanistan, or the more expensive underwater pipeline from Qatar. The US has been pragmatic by not imposing sanctions on India despite its oil imports from Iran (13.1 million tons constituting 8% of total imports).

Sherry Rehman

Immensely popular in the US as an effective instrument of the “war against terror”, because it does not put US soldiers in harm’s way, “drone strikes” has evoked adverse emotions in the Pakistani populace because in contrast hundreds of innocent Pakistani lives are lost as “collateral damage”. Notwithstanding, the legality of the US President ordering assassination of foreign nationals while violating territorial sovereignty in the process, the lasting damage to feelings between the peoples of US and Pakistan cannot be measured. While not questioning the efficacy of a drone strike compared to the most precise of PAF bombings, the US must revisit their policy to formulate a suitable mechanism that does not scar our relationship further. Mian Nawaz Sharif has a consensus mandate from all parties, giving him considerable political space to put our relationship on even keel. The US misperception about Pakistan is not all their fault, they kept hearing vile things about Pakistan from our own “official” interlocutors. Ask yourself this question, why did the US-Pakistan relations improve considerably once Ms Sherry Rahman replaced Husain Haqqani as Pakistan’s Ambassador to the US?

We must learn to live with our neighbours but it would be nice if our neighbours come to terms with our existence also. Before embarking on a one-sided love-fest with India, Mian Sahib must take stock of all the ground realities. For the past five years the PPP government did everything but prostrate themselves physically before the Indians, they took good advantage of this appeasement to tar and feather us even more, targetting Pakistan as the “ground zero” exporter of terrorism. While we must have trade with India, we cannot gloss over the Kashmir dispute. Moreover India is engaged in a low intensity proxy fight inciting, aiding and abetting Baloch separatists. What is India’s objection to a Chinese company’s management of Gwadar Port and why is it unhappy about the proposed “China-Pakistan Economic Corridor”? Most politicians and analysts on their TV channels spout hostile vibes against us 24/7. Durable peace is not possible if this venom continues unabated and long as India keeps four-fifths of its armed forces camped on our borders.

To quote the PM, “the govt will not indulge in corruption, nor let anyone do it”. Credible accountability will be a major issue for this govt, it must be carried out without partiality otherwise it will be contested as a political witch-hunt. One can only hope Mian Sahib will have learnt from the Saifur Rahman disaster.

Mian Nawaz Sharif’s first steps in his new tenure have been excellent. He has to watch out for Zardari acting contrite, the man only plays for time before he can strike back. While Mian Sahib approach has been conciliatory and positive, the jury is still out on how he and his colleagues will perform once they exercise their newly acquired power. The portents are good, one can only hope and pray they succeed.

Courtesy: The News

Ikram Sehgal
The writer is a defence and security analyst, he is Co-Chairman Pathfinder Group, Patron-in-Chief Karachi Council on Foreign Relations (KCFR) and the Vice Chairman Board of Management Quaid-e-Azam House Museum (Institute of Nation Building).

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