Despite fears of disruption and cancellation, General Elections in Pakistan has finally taken place as scheduled on 11 May 2013. Yes, there were sporadic violence, reports of vote tampering and attempts to disrupt the polls through use of force but in the given charged environment the domestic and international verdict initially was that these have been largely free and relatively fair. Subsequent reports indicate that ballot tampering and vote rigging occurred at a large scale and it was business as usual as far as fairness of the polls are concerned.
The public has spoken and for the skeptics, the thugs have been replaced by the robber barons in the centre. They hope that a free media, a strong opposition in the centre in the shape of Imran Khan’s PTI and the powerful message the electorates have sent to the new aspirants that non performance in governance will be severely punished in the next elections, will prevent the new setup from repeating their shenanigans of the past.
At the provincial level, Punjab will stay with PML (N) with the younger Sharif again in charge and one would like to see his governance style take a more holistic approach than what was seen in the previous term. He concentrated on attractive short-term development programs at the cost of necessary but painful long-term reforms to prevent the precipitous economic downward slid. In his defence he does point out with some justification that long-term reforms of the country’s economy was the responsibility of the Federal Government where their nemesis, the PPP was in power and they did little in this regard. In the new set up where his own party most likely under the leadership of the elder Sharif will be at the centre, a more strategic and dynamic economic and developmental policies will be planned and implemented, one hopes.
The status quo in Sindh provincial legislature prevails and PPP will be again at the helm of affairs. Both PPP and MQM managed to maintain their stranglehold in the province and Karachi respectively albeit with a slightly lower mandate than what they had received in 2008. One sincerely hopes both have learned their lessons and their governance style and overall performance will improve markedly as a result. The million dollar question is whether PPP will implement the Local Government Act and hold elections at the Local Bodies level in the province. Both PPP and MQM in their respective manifestoes clearly state that enactment and enforcement of Local Government Act in order to take democracy down to the grassroots level is high on their agenda. The last five years’ rule of PPP led Sindh government witnessed a clear violation of its party pledge when on one pretext or the other it refused to hold elections at the Local Bodies level. This was a major sore point with the MQM who were their coalition partners and was the principal reason the sorry spectacle of the hide and seeks of parting of company and rejoining was constantly on display. One expects PPP not to violate its own manifesto this time around.
The participation of some of the ‘rebel’ parties of Baluchistan in the General Elections has provided a glimmer of hope in the resolution of the ongoing Baluchistan insurgency. PML (N) is very likely to form a coalition government in the province. Much will depend on how the PML (N) government which is at the helm of affairs in the centre as well, handles the crisis and bridge the yawning gap between the perceptions of the powerful army and the rebel groups in Baluchistan. PML (N)’s manifesto does promise a peaceful resolution through talks rather than use of force but will they be able to walk their talk is the million dollar question. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa too is likely to have a brand new setup – Imran’s PTI where his party has won the largest number of seats. One hopes it will form the government in the province.
PTI’s manifesto clearly spelt out its policies on two key issues – CIA Drone attacks in Pakistan and resolution of the insurgency in FATA. On the first Imran Khan had thundered that if his party came to power in the centre he will order the armed forces to shoot down the CIA operated Drones if it continued to violate the Pakistani airspace. Second, on the subject of FATA insurgency his strategy would be to withdraw the armed forces from there and resume dialogues with TTP to seek a peaceful resolution of the crisis. Since the party has failed to win enough seats to form a government at the federal level it is not in a position to fulfill its manifesto promises on both counts; which is perhaps just as well. Attempts to shoot down the Drones by the PAF and taking the military options off the table while dealing with TTP who have publicly and openly rejected the current constitution of Pakistan and declared democracy un Islamic would have serious military, political and social consequences for Pakistan. Other options to deal with the two crises should be considered before embarking on such dangerous ventures. On the other hand if his party under his leadership is able to establish good governance and a clean administration in the province, it will win the next elections both at the provincial and federal levels, whenever these are held, by a landslide.
Party manifestoes are occasionally based on what is likely to resonate with the public sentiments and help garner votes and not necessarily what is best for the nation. Once in authority most realize the limited choices available when confronting a super power especially in states like Pakistan with a weak economy that is dependent on the largesse of the developed world. Both PML (N) and PTI are likely to learn this painful lesson when they assume power in their respective spheres.
