Elections 2013 is over. Post elections political heat is also going to cool. Dust of defeat and rigging is confronting in different parts of the country. PML-N Chief Mian Nawaz Sharif’s sher is roaring. Tehrik-e-Insaaf Chairman Imran Khan’s tsunami has already hit the mountainous areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The new change has many prospects and constrains. PML-N Chief Mian Nawaz Sharif will be the next prime minister of Pakistan. He will have to live up to expectations of the people to steer the sinking economy from the choppy waters.
There are certain socio-economic, geo-political and geo-strategic issues which will has to be addressed on priority basis otherwise; the new popular government may face the same fate as of PPPP. Genie of acute energy shortage which has been hovering over the country for the last so many years, is badly needed a genuine effort. There is skyrocketing budgetary deficits which needs space-shuttle drive to manage. There is menace of terrorism and extremism which needs appropriate short and long terms policies of the heavy mandate. So Pandora box is ready to spread perils against easy and smooth governance in the days to come.
Socio-Economic Challenges
Society has already been fragmented. Shortage of even basic necessities of life has ruined their lives. Qualitative education, supply of clean drinking water, health care and the last not but the least, housing has become dreams of an alien. Spirits of honesty, transparency and fair play have already been bulldozed in the hot pursuits of power, money and status. According to the WHO (April, 2013) report more than 1120 children in Pakistan are killed because of malnutrition in the country. Height of human misery.
There is an urgent need of new social contract to be institutionalized in the country. New government must pledge certain and concrete regulatory mechanism of social-nets throughout the country. Our educational and health systems need prompt overhauling horizontally and vertically. Every old and new residential housing scheme should be instructed to have clean drinking water filters facility.
Unemployment is spreading like a cancer in the society. According to Pakistan Survey (2012) the country has more than four million unemployed and eight to 10 million underemployed people. New government must be ready to face the music. Unemployment crisis has toppled the dynasties of most of the Middle East region in the ongoing waves of spring. So, better to aware its consequences in the near future. There should be concrete efforts for human exports in the GCC and other friendly countries.
Price hike, inflationary trends, hoarding and even smuggling of edible commodities must be dealt with irony hands otherwise, people mob would create dints in the heavy mandate. Litmus test for public popularity would be the holy month of Ramadan. All possible HRM, structural and managerial experience and forces ought to be deployed to safe the people from the vultures of humanity and dignity.
Neither macro-economic indicators are not in good shape nor are its prospects bright and healthy. The new government at center would face difficulties to address the prevailing gigantic economic issues like low tax-to-GDP ratio (lowest even in the region) currently soaring around 10 percent; high debts level (domestic & external) currently at 68 percent of GDP or Rs.15.2 trillion, showing that each Pakistani carries a loan burden of Rs.80,000, rampant corruption in the white elephants of public sector enterprises (PIA, PIA, Railways, Pak Steel and Wapda) alone eat up over Rs.300 billion annually through budgetary subsidies; widening fiscal deficit i.e. 8.5 percent of GDP, which causes inflation and the abnormal increase in government borrowing from the SBP/banks. The new government would also confront with weak private sector, low gross national savings ratios, (lowest in the region 15 percent) and circular debt that need hundreds of billions of cash injections by the government.
According to estimation the government needs US$ 4 billion to get ride from circular debts. Active commercial diplomacy may provide breathing space to new formed government. Option of supply of oil and other energy resources on deferred payments ought to be activated but not on the compromise of socio-economic or geo-strategic sovereignty. Reduction in line losses (40 percent), theft (20 percent), and capacity building measures for the existing infrastructure and to paradigm shift in the means of production would be ideal combination to curb the waves of heat throughout the country. Public-private strategic partnership in all industrial areas like (Faisalabad, Gujrat, Gujranwala, Karachi etc.) for the energy production from the unconventional means should be encouraged. Nandipur power Hydropower project must be installed as soon as possible. Even coal (imported or local) would be used for energy production. Alternative energy drive must be started. Punjab Chief Minister Mian Shahbaz Sharif has already developed strong relations with Turkish and German entrepreneurs which should be further strengthened. Role of Masdar, UAE multinational company will be vital if seeks any help in the near future.
Moreover, The PML-N lead government must take appropriate steps to negotiate with the IMF for obtaining bailout package of $5-7 billion to avert balance of payment crisis and preparing ground for presenting a feasible budget for 2013-14. Federal Budget 2013-14 would be one of the toughest tasks of the center. Dwindling foreign currency reserves, vanishing FDIs ratios and the last but not the least, imbalanced parity between imports-exports would cause serious challenges in the days to come. Only good sign is high ratios of worker remittances i.e. may surpass to US$ 11 billion in the current fiscal year.
The complexity of the situation requires composite short and long term strategies. The government will not depend on conventional or traditional means to fix it by either to tighten the belt by compressing imports to the tune of $3 billion on immediate basis or approaching the IMF to avoid default. Role of commercial diplomacy would be crucial. The government should approach to its strategic partners like, China, UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar to showering us assistance in shape of joint ventures projects and financial support for the time being for meeting the budgetary deficits. Imposition of ban on the import of non-essential items (40 percent as of SBP annual report of 2012) and serious appeal to potential Pakistani investors and businessmen to invest in the country must be the mantra of the new government.
Spirits of good governance, transparency and simplicity along with strong political commitment would be there to reduce expenditure.
Geo-Political Challenges
To achieve national consensus on the important national issues would be paramount challenge in the days to come. Working relations with MQM (law & order situation, expected change of governorship), Balochistan nationalists (marginalization process in shape of socio-economic isolation, political discrimination) and to some extend with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on certain conflicting realities (war against terrorism, drones and construction of water reservoirs) may be out there to tackle with collective political wisdom and spirits of accommodation.
Geo-Strategic Challenges
Pakistan’s geographical position has multidimensional strategic nature. Pakistan is gateway to Central Asian Countries and shortest connected sea corridor which needs to optimally utilize without indulging with ongoing greater game around our soil. We have abundant opportunities and numerous hurdles. Expected US withdrawal from Afghanistan would bring paradigm shift in our notions of security and stability.
Chinese premier Li Keqiang has visited Pakistan for finalizing the handing over formalities of Gwadar Port. It would be game changer in the national economy and further enhance our strategic importance in the region. Bilateral cooperation in the fields of peaceful nuclear energy between Pakistan and China would be speed-up. Pak-Russia strong bilateral relations would be beneficial for countries, our strategic presence in the CIS and the last but not the least maintaining strategic equilibrium in the region.
The government may face tough reaction from the US establishment and Saudi Arabia/GCC club on the burning issue of Pakistan-Iran so-called dream gas pipeline. It has been kept back burner for so many years but all of sudden national political maneuvering in the last regime carried us at the wolf door. It has spillover socio-economic, geo-political and geo-strategic repercussions. Resolution of energy crisis is directly or indirectly connected with this issue. The PMN-L lead government will face the two imminent scenarios, firstly: endorse the Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline and face the dragon’s fury i.e. US, Saudi Arabia/GCC along with tough time at IMF & World Bank forums, no supply of energy resources at deferred payments and BIG NO to any substantial socio-economic assistance of project. Secondly, discard the Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline and become strong contender of socio-economic bounties, geo-political stability and geo-strategic cushion. The government must negotiate with the US on the much needed Pak-US free market access, establishment of economic free zones along with supply of civil nuclear plants.
Spirits of romance and honeymoon with India must not be dreamed at once. Elections in India are going to held in 2014. So, making inroads on the front of India would not produce any substantial results before 2014. Bilateral must be pursued with BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa).
On the issue of death and life, i.e. terrorism and drone, the government must initiate composite national dialogue with all the major stake holders in the political arena and military junta to reach at one point agenda. Meaningful talks with Taliban with and out of the territory must be chalked-out. US led drone policy has been proved counter-productive in the war theater. The new government may convince the US establishment for the supply of drone technologies for indigenous response to any violation of sovereignty in the days to come.
Concluding Remarks
Without wasting precious time in making castles in the air or day dreaming, the PML-N led government at the center at once announces population and financial emergence to overcome the burning issues. Issues are too big to resolve which need bold steps and strong political commitment. Mian Nawaz Sharif the 3rd time Prime Minister has a golden opportunity to fulfill his dreams of public service, people’s welfare, employment, social justice, transparency and above all socio-economic development in the country. People are hoping that Sher will eat the high ratios of unemployment, discrimination, denial of social justice and poverty. Let us hope because Mian Nawaz Sharif the new Prime Minister has strong character.
