Other than the “electables” of the feudal kind, every Province has its own ethnic, racial and sectarian electoral dynamics, our extremely defective “first past the post” system force-multiplies the problems of governance. Out of the nearly 35 million cast in 2008 (out of nearly 85 million) PPP got a little more than 10 million i.e. 29% but 97 seats (36%). PML (Q) had 8 million i.e. 23% but only 42 (16%) seats whereas PML (N) got 6.8 million votes i.e. 20% but 25% seats. Many parties including PTI, JI, etc did not participate. The equation in urban-rural constituencies depends upon the predominant ethnic vote cast, highlighted best by the PPP’s problems in Sindh stemming from the on-again off-again Sindh Local Bodies Ordinance giving the population two sets of laws within one Province viz (1) PPP’s gambit to accommodate MQM’s reservations infuriated the ethnic Sindh population, the PML (F) and nationalist parties making common anti-PPP cause (2) gave space to Mian Nawaz Sharif to make an election alliance, shoring up Pir Pagara’s PML-led (F) alliance to do better than it did in 2008 and (3) allowed some discredited former PML (Q) stalwarts to revive their fortunes, albeit in different party garbs.
Notwithstanding enthusiastic Imran fans fired up to vote in Karachi, and other parts of Sindh, PTI will possibly not win a single seat in Sindh, except perhaps for Shah Mahmood Qureshi, and he is campaigning here as an independent. Both PPP and MQM are still assured of a majority, albeit a reduced one. The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) is unable (and unwilling) to prevent the deliberate staffing of polling booths by officials aligned to the PPP and MQM, this pre-poll rigging condoned by the Sindh caretaker govt aligned by them. PPP’s seat count will be followed by MQM, then by the PML (F) – nationalist alliance, a number of independents winning seats both in National Assembly (NA) and the Provincial Assembly (PA).
Unlike 2008 (and earlier) there is a greater awareness in Balochistan of electoral politics. Militant activity extends to mostly Baloch-populated areas i.e. less than 20% of the population but they are threatening people not to vote in Dera Bugti, Kohlu, Kalat, Mastung and Khuzdar, etc. The pervasive feeling of discrimination notwithstanding, the nationalists electoral support is limited to mainly Marri, Mengal and to a limited extent the Bugti areas, with adjoining tribal affiliations. The nationalists’ electoral hype is more of a media creation than actual electoral ground reality. The JUI (F) will retain its inherent support in the northern Pashtun belt. Mengal possibly aligning with Achakzai is good news, the Pashtun-speaking Hazara community will be more united with the Baloch, together in the face of adversity. The sectarian divide will not have a significant impact. Besides feudal “electables” winning, PML (N) and independents will get a handful of seats, PPP will get 3 or 4 seats in the Balochistan Assembly only.
Khyber Pukhtunkhwa (KPK) will witness major change from 2008. Known for its honest and sincere worker-orientation, the Awami National Party (ANP) is very much discredited and in serious trouble because of its blatant corruption from top downwards. PPP leads this category nationally in this respect, ANP will be extremely lucky to get 3-4 seats nationally, some more in the KPK Assembly. The PML (N) will certainly get a half dozen seats plus, while JUI (F) will hold its traditional bastions of power. Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) will get some NA seats because of adjustment with PTI, and some in the KPK Assembly. PTI should get nearly a dozen seats, mainly at the expense of ANP and PPP. Disgruntled independent “electables” contesting without a political party banner will also get a few seats.
The battleground is the Punjab. Broadly speaking Punjab can be divided into rural, urban and urban-rural constituencies. The common perception was that the real fight would be between PML (N) and PPP-PML (Q) combine, but that is patently wrong. PPP will be very lucky to get a couple of dozen seats with the electables in PML (Q) getting even less, in both the Assemblies. Some seats will go to the independents, JI etc but the real struggle is between PML(N) and PTI, mainly in Central Punjab. PML (N) have a fair amount of support from the rural constituencies on electoral day but the urban and urban-rural constituencies all along the GT Road as well as the Lahore-Multan and the Lahore-Faisalabad-Sargodha-Mianwali roads works in favour of PTI. To score Imran Khan has to get the vote out on election day!
Enamoured by the District Management Group (DMG) the Shahbaz Sharif regime was nasty beyond belief to the Provincial Civil Service (PCS). More than 73 PCS officers as well as dozens of doctors and paramedics were arrested and booked under the anti-terrorist act for protesting, their leaders brutally attacked by police. The President of the Lecturers Association had his leg broken on the Mall Road. DMG officers may influence day-to-day governance, on election day it is the PCS officers down the line, teachers, education and population welfare staff etc who man the polling booths, that works in PTI’s favour by mostly eliminating poll rigging. PCS includes clerks, stenographers, personal assistants, peons, sweepers, gardeners, chowkidars, etc not to mention Provincial Police Service (PPS) constables, head constables, ASIs, Inspectors, etc. Some ground surveys have the PTI actually outvoting the PPP 3 to 2 in many constituencies, neck and neck in the seat count in the Punjab, the PML (N) presently having a slight edge. Mainly at the expense of PPP, that could change if PTI get out their solid youth and women support to actually vote on election day. In 2008 44% voted despite the terrorist bombings, PTI needs to exceed 55%, every additional percentage will help PTI. Imran Khan must target rallies in Sialkot, Multan, Faisalabad and Gujranwala close to election day to maintain the momentum. If a motorised rally along the GT Road, addressing not less than a dozen meetings only 3-4 days before Election Day is successful, it will be a game-changer.
Other than repeating their 2008 performance in Sindh, mostly because of systematic pre-poll rigging, PPP is trailing both PML (N) and PTI nationally. The PPP’s major problem other than providing the worst and most corrupt governance in the history of Pakistan is that at the political hustings at a critical period it is leaderless. After blatantly politicizing the Presidency for nearly five years, Asif Zardari must be restless being legally hors de combat confined to Presidential quarters. Bilawal cannot step out of his security parameter because of genuine security concerns. Second in Punjab in 2008, this time around PPP will be lucky being ahead of its coalition partners PML (Q) and MQM for third place behind PML (N) and PTI, probably in that order.
Whatever way one looks at it and despite suffering electronic media negativity, PTI has come out of almost nowhere to challenge PML (N) for predominant electoral position in the country, that is a major achievement of significant importance. A hung Parliament is certainly in the offing but this time it will be slanted towards good governance.
Courtesy: The News
