Pakistan and India are in the midst of a Cold War to influence developments in Afghanistan. Since the fall of the Taliban regime in 2001 both have injected their confrontation into Afghan affairs where they follow a zero sum game in which the gain of one is the loss of the other. This equation is further fanning the bilateral Cold War. Their economic, financial, political, defense and geopolitical interests clash there and prevent each from gaining an edge over the other – such a Cold War is a stumbling block for development, peace and security in Afghanistan.
India has adopted a two pronged approach in Afghanistan – it wants to secure and strengthen Afghanistan as a strong Afghanistan would mean weak terrorists who normally plot terrorist acts while keeping their safe heavens in Afghanistan. This would also mean safe Indian trade routes to Central Asian Republics. New Delhi also wants to keep a check on Islamabad’s influence.
On the other hand, Pakistan sees India’s growing influence in Afghanistan as a detrimental fact to its security from its geographical ‘soft belly’. In case, a strong and anti-Pakistan alliance between New Delhi and Kabul takes place, it will be a two front war for Pakistan (East- India, West-Afghanistan). This will also end the concept of ‘Strategic Depth’ policy propounded by its security establishment. By playing its active role in Afghanistan, it also wants to obstruct India’s ability to support separatists in Balochistan. India has always been seen as an existential threat to Pakistan.
India and Afghanistan have always been on hostile terms with Pakistan since 1947 and while there have been short breaks of peace with both countries, territorial disputes like the Durand Line and Kashmir have maligned bilateral relations. Over and above, Pakistan’s military is focused on internal security concerns of the country which mostly border with Afghanistan hence any hostile or cautious power exerting influence in Afghanistan is perceived as a direct threat to Pakistan’s territorial integrity. Sharing a 2200 KM long porous and unguarded border with Afghanistan is making it a ‘soft belly’ of Pakistan from where terrorists and agents of hostile countries can sneak in to play havoc with the people of Pakistan. Hence, for Pakistan, Afghanistan will always have to be dealt with a fine blend of defense and foreign policies which may be called Defreign Policy.
Kabul is in a quest for non-political security; it wants to have trade, economic and financial relations for its development. Generally speaking, Afghanistan is a rural society which bred terrorism and extremism in the country and it is high time that Kabul focuses on urbanizing the Afghan society for bringing an end to the war psyche once and for all. War psyche will be over once people are integrated into business and economic cycles. This happened with Europe after the Second World War and it was such a spirit that resulted in the formation of the European Union. Hence President Karzai of Afghanistan is more interested in trade relations with the neighbors than talking anything that may produce controversy for his shabby regime.
The Afghan determinations of trade and economy are supported by India wholeheartedly. India has a democratic polity, institutionalized decision-making process, internal stability, large consumer base, and growing world economy. Thus New Delhi suits Kabul’s agenda. Delhi along with Washington is spending more and more in Afghanistan to strengthen its hold and to play an active role in the post 2014 Afghanistan. However, Karzai’s government has also played very often, India and Pakistan against each other to serve his own interests. At times he has distanced himself from Islamabad and moved closer to Delhi and its cooperation and assistance.
On the other hand, Pakistan’s role in Afghanistan comes from two aspects. One, it has been the victim of terrorism that enters inside its territory from the Afghan border. Two, being an immediate neighbor, it wants to play an active role in the post 2014 Afghanistan but the developing internal security dynamics and external threats have kept Pakistan entangled domestically to an extent. However, due to a synergy of Afghanistan and India Pakistan’s role in Afghanistan is marginalized which frustrates its territorial security from the 2200 KM long border. We need to understand that Pakistan is the front line ally of the Allies in the War on Terror and hence is not only fighting against terrorists in the FATA region but also in the settled areas of the country. It is also containing the spillover of terrorism to India and other countries in the South. Hence a comparison between India and Pakistan for their economies and stability is out of question. Had India been that proactive in fighting the war on terror and had it been an immediate neighbor of Afghanistan, the picture would have been completely different. According to Pakistan’s Finance Minister the war on terror has cost Pakistan’s economy a lavish sum of $79 billion (this was stated in the year 2011). Though Pakistan is not positioned well to boost trade it has demonstrated its strong willingness to take steps designed to improve the lives of ordinary Afghans. However, Pakistan’s any such goodwill gesture has been neutralized by the Indian hostile propaganda against Pakistan in Afghanistan.
If India perceives influence in Afghanistan to advance its broader domestic and regional interests, Pakistan views much of its Afghan Defreign policy through an Indo-centric prism. However, Pakistan has its objectives beyond Indian role in Afghanistan. It has to ensure that a post 2014 Afghanistan will not lash the dead horse of ‘Pashtunistan’. This has been witnessed in history where the moment Afghanistan experiences a friction of stability, it starts creating unrest and instability in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in the name of ‘Pashtunistan’. Afghanistan may also raise the issue of the Durand Line. Hence Pakistan has to adopt a policy by which it may ensure and enforce the sanctity of the border between the two countries. While keeping Kabul’s attention away from such ‘fair-weather issues’, Pakistan needs to move gingerly to muster Afghan friendship to establish a medium for enhancing trade and commercial links with Central Asian Republics (CARS). Pakistan must watch the peace process between the Taliban, the US and the Kabul regime. Any brokered peace between them must not be at the cost of Pakistan’s regional interests. Indeed it’s a fact that without a peaceful Afghanistan, Pakistan will never be peaceful. However, its also a reality that without Pakistan’s cooperation, the peace process will not see broad day light. Whenever Pakistan was neglected in peace process, the policy failed but having said that, this cooperation must not be for a pro-Pakistan regime in Kabul. We need to accept that Afghanistan is an independent sovereign country and hence it has all the right to have an independent and indigenous foreign policy. But Afghanistan must keep in view that ‘A fish can swim only in a friendly sea’ hence it has to develop friendly relations with Pakistan which is sharing a long un-defendable border.
Pak-India relations are very important for peace and stability in Afghanistan. Till their hostile relations, it is highly unlikely that there will be a fundamental shift in their policy bias. The trust deficit between the Pak-Afghan governments needs to be repaired. The mistrust between the two countries has played to India’s advantage by the deepening Indo-Afghan partnership. Pakistan also has to take concrete steps to develop cordial relations with Afghanistan as Afghan stability and economic growth would equally benefit Pakistan and India. However, a cold war in Afghanistan will not only be detrimental for Afghans, but it will also have negative and grim effect on India and Pakistan.
As the US draws down its troops from Afghanistan in 2014, it must not encourage any regional country to fill the potential vacuum which may hurt other neighboring countries. The growing Indian influence in Afghanistan is indeed a threat for Pakistan. This would mean Pakistan would be a sandwich between its eastern borders (India) and western borders (India influenced Afghanistan). This will never be acceptable to Pakistan’s political and security establishment. Understanding regional sensitivities is prerequisite to peace in the region.
