Shrugging off its traditional reliance for foreign exchange earnings on jute goods, tea etc, economically BD has made giant strides, home remittances and garment manufacturing giving momentum to a whole basket of non-traditional exports. A cursory visit is enough to dispel the general perception prevailing in Pakistan that Bangladesh (BD) is doing economically far better than Pakistan. Despite multiple crises compounded by rampant corruption and a terror-driven law and order situation, Pakistan’s economy is far more resilient and multi-faceted, notwithstanding the BD Taka performing better than the Pakistani Rupee. The pervasive mass poverty in Bangladesh far outstrips the comparable percentage in Pakistan. The focus of BD’s economy seems to be the city of Dhaka with high-rise buildings mushrooming on scarce land with greater value than almost any other capital city in the world, traffic jams are endemic. One thing in common to both our democracies, rampant nepotism and corruption put than increasingly under threat, force-multiplied by widening rich-poor gap and inflation triggering a mass upsurge.
To quote Khadimal Hasan in the NEW AGE “Promises made by the Awami League (AL) during the 2008 General Elections remain unfulfilled, good governance has remained elusive, the rule of law is yet to be established and human rights violation continues to be rampant”. Despite the AL Govts many failings, the main opposition “Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) could not play any significant role both inside and outside Parliament in projecting the people’s concerns, concentrating their anger on partisan issues, “eviction of party Chairperson Khalida Zia from her Dhaka Cantonment House and the cases filed against her and her two sons for corruption taking precedence over pressing public concerns”.
Like in Pakistan, without political consensus about elections under a genuinely neutral caretaker govt, the atmosphere is charged with the politics of confrontation. Fearing overturn of their present overwhelming mandate, the AL regime forced an amendment through Parliament abolishing the concept of a “Caretaker Govt”, a scenario that could lead to a re-run of 2005 when the ruling BNP (in Opposition now) tried to blatantly engineer the vote. Street agitation to install a non-partisan regime to conduct polls created a situation for an Army-dictated superior judiciary-supported Caretaker regime of technocrats taking power, free and fair elections were ultimately held in 2008. The “Bangladesh Model” failed when the Army within one year forget its original resolve to stay away from a role in govt. Armies can intervene for course corrections but are not equipped to run the business of govt, at most they can run the people who run govt, and that also for a short time.
Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) observed that the country’s economy was approaching a lower-level equilibrium in 2013, short of the GDP growth target of 7.2%, failing to reach even 6% as compared to the record 6.32% of Financial Year (FY) 2011-2012. With CPD projecting that revenues collection falling short of target, govt additional TK 10000 crore would be needed to meet budgetary allocations. Inward remittance flows (over US$ 12 billion) was a bright spot, budget deficit and balance of payments remaining in the safe zone. Political uncertainty could destabilize BD’s macro-economic stability, having a serious impact on the economy. “A series of mega projects aimed at revolutionizing communications, ports and energy sectors were rolled out but due to weak governance, indecision, inability to execute plans, corruption, fund shortages and donors’ conditions affected progress of most of them”, to quote Abul Kalam Azad and Sharier Khan in the DAILY STAR. Nevertheless given the prevailing recession in the developed world, it is not a bad performance. With some headway in projects in the power sector one must commend the tremendous initiative of the present regime for a “digital” nation by 2020, the progress matching India in quality if not in quantum. 18% interest on loans to the manufacturing sector, rising to more than 20% for small businesses, almost double to what in India is pushing up production costs and adversely affecting people’s purchasing power. To its credit the BB kept a cap of 7% for export financing and 13% for farm loans when withdrawing the cap on rates imposed in 2008 to help businesses cope with world recession.
The campaign in Assam against BD settlers and the water issue will adversely impact India-Bangladesh relations. Expert Mohammad Khaliquzaman said that the entire northern area was turning into a desert due to lack of water, India releasing 20% less water in the past 5 years then that stipulated from Farakka Barrage in the Farakka Water Treaty. Indian intent to unilaterally build other dams upstream including one at Tipaimukh is alarming, construction of dams is not needed for saving rivers but to save the lives of people.
The ugly controversy over how many people died during the 1971 civil war is being deliberately politically motivated to vitiate the congenial atmosphere developing between the peoples of Pakistan and Bangladesh. The truth is not something to be proud of, while nowhere the quantum being propagated the three million figure is ingrained in the Bangladesh national psyche, the local population did suffer mass atrocities at the hands of elements of the Pakistan Army. In many isolated places non-Bengalis were massacred by mob action as well as targetted murder and rape. The granddaughter of true Indian revolutionary, former President Congress Party and of the Indian National Army (INA) Subash Chandra Bose (of Bengali origin), Sarmila Bose dismissed the allegations of ethnic cleansing, rape and killings against the Pakistan Army in her book “Dead Reckoning” as highly exaggerated, commensurate atrocities done on Beharis and the non-Bengali population never being documented. The driving force in the arguments is “bitter emotional partisanship” (Sarmila Bose’s words), both sides remaining in absolute denial about the truth instead of reconciling fact with fiction, no “closure” in sight. Pakistan should request the UN to commission professional verification of the claims of the Bengalis and non-Bengalis perishing in this horrific civil war, offering to pay for the services of internationally renowned independent auditors. It will be money well spent!
Another thing common in Pakistan and Bangladesh is widespread resentment about Indian “arrogance” among the intelligentsia and the masses, much less so in Pakistan then in BD where the generally held belief is that the Indian Govt dictates everything to the Govt. PCB Chairman Zaka Ashraf was either dangerously naive or plain ignorant fantasizing India would ever allow BD’s cricket team to tour Pakistan. Neither Pakistanis nor Bangladeshis (as opposed to their present govt) like a master-slave relationship, India’s “bully” image being not conducive to a future common market in South Asia.
The inland transit facilities demanded by India highlights an important geo-political hometruth, BD’s pivotal economic location is extraordinary. Surrounded by India’s West Bengal, land-locked Assam and the impoverished seven sisters, Nagaland, Mizoram, etc, its two bustling ports make for an economic center of a possible “Association of Eastern States of South Asia”, the AESSA concept comprising economic (if not political) confederation of almost 400 million people. Standing on a fail-safe line of destiny with corrupt governance alternating between the two badly polarised ladies, Bangladesh desperately needs an honest, competent govt truly dedicated to the people.
Courtesy: The News
