India on Tuesday January 31, 2012, selected French jet Rafale over the Eurofighter Typhoon for the Indian Air Force, by nominating Dassault Aviation of France as the preffered bidder. After this gigantic military deal of $20 billion MMRCA (medium multi-role combat aircraft) procurement program the frantic search by Indian Air Force for a new 5th generation MMRCA is likely to end. The IAF has been evaluating the Euro-fighter Typhoon being jointly built by UK, Germany, Italy and Spain, American F-18 Super Hornets, and F-16 -Falcon Super Vipers, Russians Mig-35, and Swedish made Saab 35 . In the hotly-contested race French two engine Rafale MMRCA fighter is the preferred choice and is the likely winner. After the exhaustive technical and commercial evaluation spread over five years, French Rafale was preferred over the Eurofighter Typhoon. India will buy 126 Rafale fighters for the IAF. India claims that this is the largest such “open-tender” military aviation deal in the world. It will take five months for the contract to be inked after the final round of commercial negotiations between the Indian Defence ministry and Dassault Aviation of France. The requisite final approval from the Indian Cabinet. India is soon expected. A follow up order foradditional 63 Rafale fighters later has been leaked by the Indian media. This will bring the total to 189 Rafale MMRCA’s with the Indian Air Force.
Under this Rafale MMRCA project, the first 18 jets will come in “fly-away condition” from France from mid-2015 onwards, while the rest 108 fighters will later be manufactured in India over six years after a transfer of technology (ToT) to Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL). The Indian MoD on Tuesday declared Rafale to be cheaper (or lowest bidder, L-1) than Typhoon after extensive mathematical calculations and data verification of the unit cost of the two jets, lifecycle costs of operating them over a 40-year period, with 6,000 hours of flying, as well as cost of the ToT.
This India’s decision has causeed tremendous heartburn among the four countries backing the Euro fighter Typhoon. Concerned agencies in UK, Germany, Spain and Italy, have decided to present a revised offer for the Typhoon to India. The United States is annoyed by the last year -2011 rejection by India of its F/A-18 Super Hornet' and F-16Super Viper’ jets from the MMRCA race. For the last ten years Indian test pilots had subjected all these fighters to evaluation trials. After grueling field trials, IAF test pilots found only Rafale and Typhoon “compliant” on all the 643-660 technical parameters laid down to meet specific operational requirements of India. But finally recommended French Rafale for procurement and joint production.
Realizing this the unhapiness and “sensitivity”, the Indian External Affairs Ministry on Tuesday “briefed” the missions of the four losing European countries in New Delhi. The Indian MoD also explained the “determination of L-1” to aviation companies Dassault and European EADS. Defence minister A K Antony had himself made it clear that “no external factor or geo-political consideration” would play a role in the MMRCA selection process, which would solely depend on technical and commercial factors, in what will be the single biggest arms deal to be inked by UPA-II before the 2014 Indian elections.
France has reasons to be euphoric, with the sale twin-engine Rafale to India. French Air Force Chief General Jean-Paul Palomeros, on a recent sale-promotional visit to India, had told TOI the multi-role Rafale had proved its mettle in Afghanistan and Libya. Its flight safety record is unbeatable. He stressed the Rafale fighters “nuclear-capable”.
French President during his visit to India had acted as Dassault sales man. He was euphoric and described the Indian choice of the Rafael fighter as, “the victory for French industry. On Tuesday he said the MMRCA deal would “include significant ToT guaranteed by the French Government. France has significant military sales relations with India, since several decades. In mid fifties India purchase French made Ouragon fighters, followed by Mystere fighters in the 60’s and Mirage 2000H fighters in the 70’s. France is the only major Western country not to impose sanctions on India after the 1998 Pokhran-II nuclear tests. France has three major ongoing defence projects with India – the Rs 23,562-crore for six Scorpene submarines, the Rs 10,947-crore upgrade for 51 Mirage-2000s and the Rs 6,600-crore acquisition of 490 MICA missile systems. The MMRCA project will dwarf them all. As earlier reported by TOI, this “mother” of all defence deals could well become the “granny” since India will in all probability go in for another 63 fighters after the first 126 Rafael jets.
When the final MMRCA selection process was initiated by MoD in mid-2007, the overall project cost was pegged at Rs 42,000 crore or $10.4 billion for 126 fighters. Since then, with inflation also being factored in, revised estimates indicate the figure will touch $20 billion, when India goes in for additional 63 Rafale jets, which will bring to 189 the total of this versatile and battle hardened Rafael MMRCA’s with the IAF.
IAF is keen the deliveries of the 126 fighters begin from mid-2015 onwards to stem its fast-eroding combat edge. Plans are in place to base the first Rafel MMRCA squadrons in the western sector against Pakistan; first Ambala and then Jodhpur, followed by Hashimara in the eastern sector against China. India says with the 189 Rafale MMRCA jets and the 272 Sukhoi- 30MKI’s, Indian Air Force can fight a two front war i.e, against both China and Pakistan.
“The first MMRCA built in HAL should roll out in 2017-18. Thereafter, HAL will deliver six jets per year, which will go up to 20 per year later. The deal with France involves significant transfers of most modern fighter aviation technology to India. HAL will achieve 85% technology absorption by the end,” and Indian MOD source stated. Both MoD and IAF are confident there are “enough safeguards” built into the project, which includes “performance-based logistics”, to ensure India “gets the best machine, spares and product support”.
The 189 new Rafael jets added to the ongoing progressive induction of 272 Sukhoi-30MKIs fighters contracted from Russia for $12 billion will significantly bolster India’s depleting number of fighter squadrons, which are down to just 33 (with 14 to 18 jets in each) from even the “sanctioned strength” of 39.5 squadrons. India is finalizing details of the stealth Indo-Russian FGFA (fifth-generation fighter aircraft) to be built in the coming decades. IAF hopes to begin inducting the first lot of the 250 to 300 FGFA from 2020 onwards, which rough calculations show will eventually cost India around $35 billion.
All this adds to a massive air threat against China and Pakistan. Serious note needs to be taken of this grave emerging air threat by South Asian countries, especially Pakistan and China. Indian politicians, Generals and Air Marshals make no bones about China and Pakistan as threats to Indian security. Billions of dollars being spent on defence, especially on massively boosting Indian air power must not be ignored by Pakistani politicians, rules and strategists sitting in the Ministry of Defence, Joint Staff Headquarters and at Air Headquarters. A new defence strategy must be evolved with fullest cooperation with Peoples Republic of China.
