Abstract
“The founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949 was a truly historic event, and so was the independence of Pakistan in 1947.”i Sino-Pak relationship has stood the test and trial of the history, ever since the establishment of this astounding affinity. There have been commonalities in the views of both neighbours at the bilateral level, regionally and even at the global level. Both countries have assisted each other at the bi-lateral level and have shared views globally. Besides, both countries are cooperating with each other on a number of projects currently undergoing. Besides, both find opportunities to work jointly on a number of new projects bi-laterally beneficial to each other in the future too. Sino-Pak relationship is governed by the long-term foreign policy objectives of both countries. The paper attempts at evaluating the prospects of further bolstering Sino-Pak relationship in the context of changing global scenario. It also explores the possibilities of cooperation in the field of bilateral commerce and trade, defence cooperation, Pak-China civilian nuclear deal, and deliberates upon the prospects of Pakistan becoming an energy corridor by reassessing the use of underutilized Gwadar Port.
Sino-Pak Historical Linkages and Pakistani Geopolitics
Emerged from the fertile basin of the Yellow River (Huang He), before 4000 BC, today, the People’s Republic of China is a country of 1.3 billion people.ii It has in its surrounding; the great Himalayas, a huge ocean, the Gobi desert, Tibetan Plateau and world most significant regions and emerging countries.iii The Pacific, separate its heartland to an “area about a quarter the size of the continental United States.”iv Its economic growth rate is one of the world’s highest, thus enabling it to grow as a major power in the global power politics. During the times of China’s Tang dynasty, an eminent Chinese monk Hsuan-Tsangv studied Buddhism in Taxila on his pilgrimage to the west. His sojourn in Pakistan, recounted in a book entitled “The Great Tang Dynasty Record of the Western Regions”, is a popular account in the history of exchanges between the Chinese and Pakistani people.
By virtue of being the, “geographical pivot of history”vi as described by Sir Halford J. Mackinder, the geo-political location of Pakistan essentially makes it impossible for the adjoining countries and regions to ignore it. Traditionally this piece of land has been used as a linkage between Central, West, South, and East Asia and ties the surrounding regions into a web while acting as the hub. This significance was adequately highlighted by, the former President Pervez Musharraf in June 2006, in a statement which says; “Pakistan provides the natural link between the SCO states to connect the Eurasian heartland with the Arabian Sea and South Asia—-We offer the critical overland routes and connectivity for mutually beneficial trade and energy transactions intra-regionally and inter regionally”.vii
Traditionally, being part of the Indus Valley Civilization, the geographical location of Pakistan has always been used as a trade route. Mostly, this area has been used as an extension of ‘Silk Road’ between the great Chinese Empire and rest of the world. With the increase in the means of communication and diversification of the transportation routes, this region has acquired significance in the globalized world under the concept of a global village. On the economic facade, Pakistan is surrounded by growing economic giants like; China and India who are in dire need of energy, whereas its next door neighbours include oil rich Central Asian States and Middle Eastern countries. The geo-political significance of Pakistan is linked with trade, geopolitical configuration minerals and energy wealth of its surrounding regions and states. Its 600 kms long Makran coast lays a beam of the energy and trade routes out of the Straits of Hormuz and overlooks the strategically volatile gateway to the Gulf region having more than 60% of oil and 25% of world gas reserves, thereby making Pakistan as an attractive location both for East and West. Neighbourhood of Central Asian States having over 23 billion tons of oil and 3000 billion cubic meters of gas has further created new geographic imperatives for Pakistan, as it offers these landlocked energy affluent states the shortest route to the worm waters, the Arabian Sea.
The Strategic Foundation of Sino-Pak Relationship
Following the rich history shared by two ancient civilizations, Sino-Pak entente has strengthened and solidified with the passage of time. Under the dynamic leadership of Chairman Mao Zedong, People’s Republic of China came into being from the ashes of civil war between Communists and Nationalists on October 1, 1949. Pakistan was the first Islamic country, second Commonwealth and the third non-Communist country which recognized the People’s Republic of China on January 4, 1950viii. Diplomatic relations were established on 21 May 1951, sequel to the negotiations with Pakistan’s first Charge d’ Affaires who had arrived in Beijing in April 1951.ix Thereafter, the first Chinese Ambassador to Pakistan made his arrival in Karachi, then capital of Pakistan in September 1951 and Pakistan’s first Ambassador to China reached Peking in November 1951.x After having established bilateral diplomatic ties six decades ago, the year 2011 has been declared by both nations as the year for the celebration of Pak-China diplomatic relationship. Both countries are holding a series of “commemorative activities covering fields like politics, economy, culture, education, sports, etc.”xi
Owing to the compulsions of the Cold War alliances, there could not take place a meaningful progress in the bi-lateral relationship of Pakistan and China in the decade of 1950s. Gradually, a solid foundation was laid for this strategic relationship between Pakistan and China for a bilateral engagement in the subsequent years. Apart from establishing the diplomatic relationship, in 1955, during the Bandung Conference, Pakistani Premier Mohammad Ali Bogra and Chinese Prime Minister, Zhou Enlai, formally agreed to enhance their bilateral ties regionally as well as at the global level. Visualizing the strategic significance of this relationship, Mr Mao Zedong, the Chairman of Communist Party of China, expressed his desire for a better and cordial relationship between Pakistan and China during his meeting with Pakistani Ambassador to China, Mr Sultan ud Din Ahmed, on, May 23, 1955. The historic visit of Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai to Pakistan in December 1956 was of the great significance.xii The visit enabled both countries to understand the view point of each other. In the joint communiqué, it was agreed by both countries that, there is no conflict of interests between two neighbours. It was further reiterated that, divergence of views on many problems at international level should not prevent the strengthening of friendship between Pakistan and China.xiii
The gradual development of this relationship during 1950s brought both countries so closer that in 1961, “Pakistan voted for restoration of China’s seat in the United Nations.”xiv Pakistan not only supported but strongly lobbied for the restoration of China’s legitimate right to the permanent seat of Security Council in the United Nations Organizations.xv Both countries signed the boundary agreement in 1963. This was a significant milestone as it displayed the growing confidence between the two neighbours. From the Pakistani side, the agreement was signed in February 1963 in Beijing by then Foreign Minister Mr. Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto. Later China helped Pakistan in the construction of Karakoram Highway, commonly known as friendship highway, linking China’s Xingjian region with Gilgit-Baltistan through Khunjerab Pass, at the height of 16000 feet. Successful completion of this project was the biggest demonstration of mutual support and amity between both neighbours.
While reiterating the historical wordings of Chairman Mao Zedong, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao described the friendship between Pakistan and China as, a “lush tree with deep roots and thick foliage, full of vigour and vitality,”xvi during his historic visit to Pakistan in December 2010. The initial relatively slow pace of mutual understanding got an impetus in the era of Field Martial Muhammad Ayub khan, when the then Foreign Minister (later Prime Minister), Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto devised a strategic dimension to this bilateral partnership. Through his strategic vision, Bhutto advocated Pak-China relationship as a vital pillar in the Foreign Policy of Pakistan. The same vision exists today as a shared-belief in the policy-making quarters and Pakistan has maintained this strategic relationship as an inalienable part of its diplomatic relationships. The strategic partnership between both countries was initially driven by the mutual need and the bilateral alliance was termed as the alliance of necessity. However, with the passage of time, both countries have acknowledged the shared unrelenting affinity and closeness in their relationship. Apart from the political connections, both countries had developed military relationship which subsequently led to the creation of a Joint Committee for Economy, Trade and Technology in 1982.xvii Upon establishment of the first ever trade agreement for mutual benefit and cooperation of both countries in 1953, Sino-Pak bilateral trade which was initially $10 million being expected to touch the target of $15 billion in next few years.
Earlier Pakistan played a very crucial and pertinent role in bringing United States and Chinaxviii closer to each other in early 1970s by catalyzing and providing logistics for the Sino-US secret diplomatic linkage, in the height of cold war. Consequently, these developments provided opportunities and allowed China to come out from the close-door economy, thus allowing it to interact and explore new windows of opportunities in the international markets, especially U.S and Europe. This facilitation subsequently enabled China to mould its political outlook, trade and industrialization and as of today, it has emerged as a major economic and military power, second to US only. During the cold war era as well as thereafter, Pakistan indeed acted as a bridge between China and the Western world under US. On its part, U.S was able to lessen the number of its rivals especially in the Communist world, for which it should have been greatly obliged to Pakistan. The Sino-Pak friendship indeed, has matured into a comprehensive strategic partnership for peace and development in the region and abroad. Due to this mediatory role of Pakistan, today, U.S is the biggest trade partner of China.
During the critical stages like 1965 and 1971 wars, China whole heartedly supported Pakistan. At the international stage, China continues to second Pakistani point of view on the issue of Jammu and Kashmir, considering India as an illegal occupant of the state’s territory. In 2005, Pakistan and China signed a landmark “Treaty for Friendship and Cooperation and Good Neighbourly Relations.“xix According to the treaty, both committed themselves that “neither party will join any alliance or bloc, which infringes upon the sovereignty, security and territorial integrity”xx of both nations, and “would not conclude treaties of this nature with any third party.” The treaty is a key instrument which enables both countries to strengthen their strategic, economic and cultural relations. As per Mr. Salman Bashir, the current Foreign Minister, (then Ambassador to China), the “‘most important’ aspect of the treaty was the “clear and unambiguous, categorical assurance by China to defend Pakistan’s sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity.”xxi China has proved this commitment on the eve of US raid in Abbotabad on May 2, 2011, once it asked US to respect the Pakistani sovereignty. A total of twenty-two agreements (for cooperation in defence, politics, trade and economy) were signed between Pakistan and China under this friendship treaty, during the visit of Chinese Premier. In fact, the treaty has, “institutionalized the broad-based and multi-faceted relations between Pakistan and China”.xxii
Sino-Pak Areas of Bi-lateral Cooperation
The common feature of Sino-Pak strategic relationship is based on promotion of regional and global peace and harmony. Despite its global stature and overwhelming economic and military strength, China has never ever shown aggressive designs toward its neighbours or countries outside the region at international level. Indeed peaceful co-existence is the hallmark of the Chinese foreign policy, xxiii and so is the main objective of the foreign policy of Pakistan.xxiv As per the vision of the founding father of Pakistan, together with other sister nations, Pakistan has to make “greatest contribution for the peace and prosperity of the world.”xxv Chairman Mao Zedong, also founded the People’s Republic of China on the same very principles of; “equality, mutual benefit and mutual respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty,”xxvi adopted in the First Session of the “National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference”xxvii on 29 September, 1949. It embodied the major content of the “Five Principles of Peaceful Co-Existence.”xxviii
Apart from protection of its own independence and territorial sovereignty, the main principles of the Chinese Foreign policy are; “upholding of lasting international peace and friendly cooperation between the peoples of all countries, and opposition to the imperialist policy of aggression and war”.xxix In its entire history, China has never waged a war or initiated an aggression on any other country, even when it was an Asian super power in its glorious history if kingship. As analysed by neutral analysts today, the Sino-India War-1962, was thrust upon China by India. As revealed from the Chinese studies of the Sino-India War, published in 1990, “Indian border policies derived from an Indian effort to weaken or overthrow Chinese rule over Tibet—— to seize Tibet, to turn Tibet into Indian colony or protectorate or to return Tibet to its pre-1949 status”xxx compelled China to finally opt for a military solution. Indeed, being the successor state of British India, Nehru wanted to persuade the same policies, as British colonial used to do. India followed a similar policy to destabilise Pakistan by invading Kashmir and convincing Afghan Kingdom to raise the issue of Pakhtunistan. As per Professor Hu Yan of PLA National Defence University, Indian Premier Nehru worked throughout in 1950s to turn the Tibet into a, “buffer zone”xxxi between India and China.
Another salient feature of Sino-Pak bilateral relationship is that none is involving itself in the internal affairs of each other. Unlike United States, China has never involved itself in the domestic affairs of Pakistan, may it be of any nature. Despite having relationship of Chinese Communist Party (CCP), with all political parties and even with some of the religious parties of Pakistan, China believes and firmly follows its relationship with the State of Pakistan. On its part, Pakistan considers that the East Turkistan Islamic Movement in its Xinjiang province is unlawful and aimed at damaging the sovereignty of the China. Pakistan believes on one China policy and considers that Taiwan and Tibet as integral part of China. Chinese position on Kashmir is absolutely clear and believes on its disputed nature, whose decision will have to be made as per UN resolution, as per the wishes of its people, a stance Pakistan has since 1947.
In December 2010, Chinese Premier Mr. Wen Jiabao, visited Pakistan for three days. This visit has been indeed of a unique significance, as it covered all aspects viz; the strategic, political and economic. During the visit, Premier Wen Jiabao made sure to meet all stakeholders in Pakistan. Apart from the traditional meetings with the President and Prime Minister, Chinese Premier met with leaders of all political parties of Pakistan. Rather, it was a rare mosaic of Pakistani political, religious, and territorial leadership gathering to welcome their all time friend in Islamabad. This gathering was indicative of the fact that, there exists no second opinion about Pakistan’s relationship with the People’s Republic of China. No foreign leader has ever received such a massive reception and united response with a spirit of love in Pakistan. Together with political leadership, Premier also held a meeting with the Armed Forces heads under Chairman Joint Chief of Staff Committee and assured further enhancement in the ongoing cooperation in the field of defence. On this occasion, Premier Wen Jiabao declared that, “Beijing would never give up on Pakistan.”xxxii The major areas of Sino-Pak multi-layered relations are discussed in the succeeding paragraphs.
Economic Cooperation
Analysts believe that, “China’s rapid economic growth and emergence on the world stage in recent years appear as signs of a country that is growing ever more powerful”xxxiii Chinese economic growth rate is one of the highest in the world. Traditionally, both countries have strong economic bonds and China continues its economic assistance to Pakistan without attaching strings. Apart from the traditional cooperation, in December 2010, during the visit of Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, Pakistan and China concluded economic deals worth $35 billion in total.xxxiv These deals include; 17 agreements, four memorandum of understanding (MoU) and a joint venture. Around 83 Chinese companies are already working in Pakistan in various fields like; exploration of oil and gas, information technology, telecommunication, power generation, engineering, automobiles, infrastructure development and mining sectors. Currently over 100 Chinese enterprises are working in Pakistan under the Five Year Programme for trade and economic cooperation. These Chinese companies have identified sixty-two projects. Out of these, twenty-seven have been launched; twenty-six are being examined and remaining are being reviewed. This indeed is a new record of the economic deals and agreements in the Sino-Pak bilateral history.
In order to further enhance the economic cooperation, Prime Minister Gillani and Premier Wen Jiabao, attended the Pak-China Business Cooperation Summit, which was participated by 260 Chinese delegates with their 150 Pakistani counterparts. On this occasion, Chinese Premier, reiterated his resolve to enhance the bilateral trade with Pakistan in the coming years in a bid to improve the flow of investments between both countries. He said that, “his country would increase investment in Gwadar Port”. Chinese Premier also promised that his country would remove the trade barrier between Pakistan and China by improving trade infrastructure and promoting Pakistani exports to his country. Otherwise, there exists a ‘Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on goods, investment and services between both countries and the Free Trade Commission (FTC) having members from both sides who meets regularly. By 2010, the Sino-Pak bi-lateral trade has risen to $8.7 billion from just $1.8 billion in 2002, which is a remarkable improvement. In 2010, “Pakistan’s exports to China have increased by 37% while import from China grew by 25%. The overall growth rate is a promising 28%.”xxxv There are all the likelihoods that, this bi-lateral trade can be raised up to $15 billion, by 2015, through a constant growth rate. In this regards, FTC has already started its consultations “to enhance trade liberalization and promote economic and trade growth of the two countries. It will also look into the issues of dispatch of official purchase missions from China to Pakistan, visa facilitation measures and development of an Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) system.”xxxvi
Political Linkages
During the 2010 visit in his address with the Joint Session of the Pakistani Parliament, Chinese Premier assured Pakistan an unflinching Chinese support on the issue of Kashmir as per UN resolutions. As a daring step, while recognizing the disputed nature of Kashmir, China does not issue visas to the people of Indian Occupied Kashmir on Indian passport. Rather, it attaches a separate page to stamp the visas for Kashmiris. China always desired a peaceful resolution of the Kashmir issue, as per the wishes of its people. Chinese Prime Minister also appreciated Pakistan’s role and sacrifices, in fighting out the terrorism. While pointing towards myopic global response towards Pakistan, the Chinese Premier said, “Pakistan has paid a heavy price in combating the terrorism. The fight against terrorism should not be linked with any religion or ethnic group and there should be no double standards.”xxxvii Indeed, in conformity to the national interests of the peoples of both countries, this strategic partnership would promote, “peace, stability and prosperity of the region.”xxxviii Furthermore, China also assured Pakistan for its full support to Pakistani position on the Afghan issue. Both countries believe that, ISAF forces should vacate the region and the Afghan issue should be resolved through a regional approach by amalgamating all Afghan groups and factions, and not through dictation of extra-regional powers. China has its concern over Indian bid for the permanent membership of UNSC and its hegemonic designs and discriminatory treatment with the regions’ smaller countries.
On the recent episode of the US raid to haunt Osama Bin Laden, China showed her unflinching support to Pakistan and emphasized United States to respect the sovereignty of Pakistan. Indeed, the repeated visits of leadership from both countries have proved that, truly, Pak-China relationship is higher than mountains and deeper than oceans. In the wordings of the Pakistani Ambassador to China, “The entire Pakistani nation was deeply touched by China’s forthright, principled and staunch support to Pakistan, expressed by Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Jiang Yu, following the killing of Osama bin Laden. Pakistani media applauded China’s reiteration of the principle that independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of any country should be respected; and its reaffirmation that Pakistan Government was determined in its resolve and strong in its action in the fight against terrorism.”xxxix
Sino-Pak Defence Cooperation
Pakistan and China are also closely co-operating in the field of Defence production. China has been a high-value guarantor and a reliable supplier of conventional military equipment to Pakistan like; F-7 fighters, T-85 main battle tank (ZTZ96 is its new version). China has subsidized the future construction of four frigates for the Pakistan navy. Apart from this, there is a joint production of ‘JF-17 Thunder’ aircraft between Pakistan and China which has the strategic significance for Pakistan, and is a unique example of Sino-Pak deep rooted friendship. On the eve of Prime Minister Gilani’s state visit of China in May 2011, China has offered Pakistan 50 JF-17 Thunder aircrafts, to be delivered in next few months. The aircrafts are being jointly manufactured by both countries.
As per Ambassador Masood Khan, “Our two Armed Forces have very close cooperation. Early this year, Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee of Pakistan held the 8th round of Defense and Security Talks with PLA Chief of General Staff. We have unanimity of views to pursue peace and security in the region and to defeat the evil forces of terrorism, extremism, and separatism. Out active collaboration in this regard has produced results.”xl Sino-US military cooperation covers “high-level military exchanges, structured defense and security talks, joint exercises, training of personnel in each other’s institutions, joint defense production, and defense trade.”xli
From the SCO Forum
With over 60 percent of global landmass and half of the world populace, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), has shown its willingness to open its membershipxlii for other regional countries in its annual meeting held in Tashkent, on June 11, 2010. The 10th Summit of SCO hosted by Kazakhstan in its capital Astana on June 14-15, 2011. Pakistan is making its earnest efforts to get its membership and has presented a sound case for that, whenever such an opportunity is available. Pakistan feels that, by virtue of its geo-political location, it has the potential to play a pivotal role in development of its relationship with the SCO countries. It is located at the crossroads of South, Central, West, and East Asia, thus becoming the bridge between various regions and civilizations of Asia. Through the attainment of the SCO’s membership, Pakistan can fully accrue the benefits from this inter-regional and inter-continental harmony. Apart from the bi-lateral relationship, the SCO forum can best be utilized for further cementing the Sino-Pak ties. Over the period, SCO has setup “over twenty large-scale projects related to transportation, energy, and telecommunications and held regular meetings of security, military, defense, foreign affairs, economic, cultural, banking, and other officials from its member states.”xliii Apart from strengthening unity and cooperation, among the members, the 10th SCO Summit, has finalized the strategies, for fighting the “three evil forces,” namely terrorism, separatism and extremism; safeguarding security and stability; and advancing pragmatic cooperation among the members of SCO. Pakistan has been the victim of all these evils, especially the terrorism. This step in a way would facilitate Pakistan in overcoming these evils through cooperation of other SCO member states.
Nuclear Cooperation
Through a deal, initially signed in 1986, China had agreed to export four nuclear power reactors to Pakistan for nuclear energy. Two had already been installed, whereas, remaining two with an approximate cost of $2.375 billion were finalized in 2010. There have been lot of hue and cry over the deal from United States and India. However, China clarified that it was providing nuclear reactors to Pakistan under the years old nuclear deal. According to Mr. Qin Gang, the spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, “the nuclear cooperation between the two countries was for peaceful purposes and are ‘totally consistent’ with its international obligations and safeguards of the International Atomic Energy Agency.”xliv New Delhi and Washington had maliciously objected that the deal would breach the international protocol, regarding the trade of nuclear equipment and material. U.S ploy was that the deal would overstep “the guidelines of the 46-country Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), which bars nuclear commerce between Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) members like China and non-member states like Pakistan”.xlv However, Pak-China Nuclear Deal was concluded in 1986, when China was neither the member of NSG nor it had signed the NPT by then. China signed the NPT in 1992 and became the member of NSG in 2004. Therefore, the objections were considered irrelevant and prejudiced. Nevertheless, the ‘Indo-US Nuclear Deal-2005’ later finalized in 2008, otherwise provided the precedence, and actually opened the floodgate for any such like deal in the future. Indeed, after setting precedence by itself, Washington and New Delhi indeed, had no legal and moral grounds to object the Pak-China Nuclear Deal.
On its part, Pakistani Foreign Office rejected the Indo-US concerns over the Pak-China civil nuclear deal. The spokesperson said that, “Pakistan-China civil nuclear cooperation is going on for years. Our cooperation is under the relevant IAEA safeguards. Therefore concerns, if any, were misplaced.”xlvi While tracing the history of Pak-China civil nuclear cooperation, it is pertinent to note that, a Comprehensive Nuclear Cooperation Agreement between then Pakistani Foreign Minister Sahibzada Yaqub Khan and his Chinese counterpart was signed on September 15, 1986, at Beijing in the presence of Chinese Premier and PAEC Chairperson Dr. Munir A. Khan.xlvii According to this agreement, China was to construct four nuclear plants in Pakistan namely; Chasma 1, 2, 3 and 4 by 2011.
NSG, however, was created after the nuclear test of India in 1974, once India diverted the fuel meant for the atom for peace to its weapon programme. If India, the primary proliferators, could be given such a concession by the NSG, why Pakistan be deprived from it. US officials consider that countries that have not signed the NPT so far cannot be granted the facility. The super power is perhaps overlooking the aspects that India is also a non-signatory to NPT. US also consider that, “Additional nuclear cooperation with Pakistan beyond those specific projects that were grandfathered in 2004 would require consensus approval” However, Pakistan and China rejects these, since it is like, “the pot calling the kettle black”. Indeed, “US had not only violated the NPT, but had also violated the Hyde Act 2006, (by finalising a similar deal with India regarding cooperation on nuclear energy for peaceful purposes).” Since the Pak-China deal would be under the IAEA safeguards, therefore, there would be no legal hurdle in its finalization. In the mean time the Chinese Foreign Ministry clarified that the deal as in accordance with the international law, therefore, rejected the Indian and American objections.
Energy Cooperation
Earlier Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gillani, appreciated Chinese investment in Pakistan, especially in the energy sector of Pakistan. Prime Minister Gillani said that, “We would encourage Chinese companies to consider investments in the energy sector, which assures certain returns. Our energy requirements are expected to increase from 20,000MWs to more than 160,000MWs by the year 2030.” In fact Pakistan is not a resource deficient country, but problem lies with the technical expertise, infrastructure development and finances. Today, apart from huge amount of unexplored oil and gas, “Pakistan has 185 billion tonnes of coal reserves, which would be converted into energy to satisfy Pakistan’s growing demand.” Besides, Pakistan welcomes Chinese experts for the exploration of its oil and gas resources. Prime Minister assured Chinese investors for special economic incentives like; “duty-free import of plant and machinery, exemption from sales tax and income tax.”
Pakistan and China are already working for the development of the Pak-China Trade Corridor along the Karakoram Highway (KKH). In this regard, the highway is being upgraded and feasibility for lying of a railway track along the KKH is being studied. Upon development of this overland route, there would be further boost to the economic relationship. This would link the Gwader with its semi autonomous region of Xinjiang through an all weather highway. The Gwader port and communication infrastructure upon completion would enable China to have an easy access to the Middle Eastern countries through Indian Ocean, thus enabling it to further boost its economic ties with the hydrocarbon rich region. Pakistan is otherwise becoming a hub for the oil and gas from Central Asia and Middle East to China and India. With the improvement of communication infrastructure, oil and gas from these regions can easily be transported to the Chinese territories either through oil tankers or through an overland gas pipeline. Premier Gillani assured his counterpart for the safety of Chinese nationals working in Pakistan. He said, “Besides a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement and the Joint Five Year Economic Programme, we are now jointly endeavouring to establish closer financial and banking sector cooperation.”
Future Prospects
Pakistan as an Energy and Trade Corridor
As conceived towards the mid of the first decade of 21st century, why not to exploit the geographical location of Pakistan as an energy passageway for the developing economies of the Asia. According to this concept three main oil and gas transportation passageways were considered feasible from hydrocarbon rich regions to energy ravenous regions of Asia. These potential routes include: First; the North-South Oil Corridor, which would connect Middle East and Central Asia with China through Gwadar deep sea port in Pakistan. The corridor will have the potential to serve as a transit and supply route for India and other regional countries too. Second; the East-West Gas Corridor, which would connect Iran and other Middle Eastern countries with India through Pakistan. It will have the potential to supply gas to China too. Third; the North-South Oil and Gas Corridor, which will be able to connect India with Central Asian States through Pakistan, with potential to supply the oil and gas to China.
As a corollary to this concept, Pakistan seriously considered construction of a gas pipeline from gas rich Iran to Pakistan in 1993. Later on, it was proposed by Iran to extend the facility to India via Pakistan. The concept aims to benefit all three countries and named as Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) Gas Pipeline. Later it was christened as the ‘Peace Pipeline’. The pipeline would traverse over 2,775 kilometres (1,724 miles) from Iran’s South Pars gas field in the Persian Gulf through the Pakistani city of Khuzdar, with one branch going on to Karachi and a second extending to southern Punjab near Multan and then on to India. Pakistan and Iran have been pushing the project to its immediate implementation but unfortunately, over the years, India; the main beneficiary of the pipeline has dilly dallied the project on insignificant differentiations, primarily because of its engagement with US over Indo-US Nuclear Deal or else perceptible security reasons in some of Pakistani areas. On its part, United States stressed India not to have any sort of economic cooperation with Iran, owing to its serious differences over Iran’s nuclear programme. In February, 2009, Pakistan and Iran again negotiated the project and agreed to finalize the gas pipeline without even Indian participation. With the Iranian backing, Pakistan has suggested China to be part of the project. China which otherwise has been viewing Iran as a significant node in its energy security, has welcomed the offer and desired; extending the IPI pipeline up to the Chinese territory to obtain additional gas to feed its growing economy. Furthermore, China is interested to develop an overland mean of transportation of oil and gas rather a sea routes, which more often are dominated by United States and now India too, as strategic partners.
Another gas pipeline project from Turkmenistan to Pakistan via Afghanistan (TAP) was finalized in 2002. The project could not be implemented owing to serious internal security disturbances in Afghanistan. The project has the potential to provide gas to India and China. With the backing of United States, in May, 2007, India also desired to join the project through Asian Development Bank (ADB). With Indian participation, the project was later renamed as Turkmenistan– Afghanistan–Pakistan–India (TAPI) Gas pipeline. Now this pipeline would run from the Dauletabad gas field in Turkmenistan to the Indo–Pakistani border with an approximate cost of $7.6 billion. This pipeline project can later be extended to China as well.
Analysts view that the Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline, previously known as the Iran-Pakistan-India Pipeline (IPI) has the potential to be taken across the Khunjreeb pass to the Chinese territory, thus renaming it as the Iran-Pakistan-China (IPC) pipeline. Similarly, the pipelines from the Central Asia have the potentials to be taken to the Southern Chinese autonomous region of Xingjian through Gwadar. Currently over 50 % of Chinese oil is being imported from Middle Eastern countries, having religious and historical links with Pakistan. This oil transportation through oil tankers can take the form of the transportation through pipeline via Gwadar, the nearest and overland route to the Chinese soil. The proposed concept if materialized would enable Pakistan to utilize 20–30% of the corridor capacity while leaving 70–80 % capacity to be used by energy deficient China and may be others like India. The concept also categorise Gawadar port as the Asian Energy Hub.
Crucial Chinese Role needed to make best use of Gwadar Port
The only strategically significant deep sea Gwader port in Pakistan was developed by China through an initial investment of $248 million in a record time. The port is located at the mouth of Persian Gulf just 150 nautical miles from the Straits of Hormuz, through which passes nearly 60% of the world’s oil supplies. The port is of the great strategic value as it supplements Pakistan’s importance in the region, while allowing China to diversify and secure its crude oil import routes and simultaneously gain access to the Persian Gulf. The port was aimed to become, a regional and global maritime hub. Domestically, the fundamental factor behind the development of the port was to stimulate the economic growth in the northern and western parts of Pakistan. Regionally, the port provides the shortest possible approach to Arabian Sea to the landlocked Central Asian Republics and Afghanistan for their transhipment facilities. However, globally, it is the best alternative and a storage port, owing to its potential to handle the major ships and oil tankers. It can handle, “up to fifth-generation ships, including Panamax and mother vessels.”
Unfortunately, upon its completion in March 2007, the administration of the port was handed over to the Port of Singapore Authority (PSA), with corporate tax exemption for a period of forty years. The otherwise concessional agreement, delimited PSA to invest $3 billion, with $550 million in first five years. However, after the passage of four years, PSA has not invested even a friction of this amount on the port and as yet, and not a single commercial vessel could reach the Gwadar port. The problem is likely to persist for a foreseeable future, if the administration of the port remains with the PSA. In the wordings of the former Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission Sardar Aseff Ahmed Ali, “the Gwadar port project is a disaster, as the 40-year concession agreement with the PSA has not yielded any results in its first three years.”xlviii
Indeed, “The government and the PSA are in default of commitments,” and as clearly declared by Naval Chief, Admiral Noman Basheer that, the port is not serving the purpose for which it was built; therefore, the agreement with PSA should be cancelled. Otherwise, the agreement was “one-sided and a lot of incentives have been given to the PSA,” in March 2007, which did not develop the port any further as agreed. In converse to the basic design of the port, still there exist “no facility for supporting the oil industry—-even though the port was on the mouth of Gulf. Due to this, Pakistan is unable to attract investment in Gwadar from Gulf countries … in the oil and gas sector”.
Fortunately, there has been a lot of change in the perception of the local Baloch population. Gradually they are coming out of the influence of those who never wanted the regional development. They now realise that it was a plot to damage the Gwadar port. Now they desire that Chinese should be back to run the administration of the port. As per a local Baloch nationalist Sardar, Mr. Rauf Khan Sasoli, “The port should have gone to the Chinese, who built it largely from their own investment, in the first place.” Another prominent Baloch journalist, Mr. Behram Baloch, said that, “China may be the only country which can work under the difficult Balochistan conditions.” By not fulfilling any commitment, PSA has provided sufficient grounds to revoke the agreement made in March 2007. Since our own expertise are limited in this field, therefore, let us go back to the basic developers of the port and ask our all-weather friend China to fully operationalize the port. Keeping the port for three years without paying any revenue to Pakistan should otherwise bind the PSA to pay compensation to Pakistan. Indeed, apart from the think tanks, intelligentsia and the masses of Pakistan, the Baloch sub-nationalists who have been used against the Chinese in the Province, have developed a feeling that, it is China only that can develop and run the Gwadar Port. Chinese have the experience, will and the capacity to expand the port that includes increasing the existing three berths to eighteen by 2014 and completion of the road and railway network. Above all, there is a commonality of Pak-China interests in the development of the port.
The Port provides China (especially its Southern autonomous region) an easy and shortest excess to the Arabian Sea. Economic experts visualize that, “The volume of the Chinese trade is so much that Gwadar can beat other regional ports, if China could divert only a fraction of its trade to pass to its burgeoning western regions through the mighty Karakorum.” Since Chinese experience of industrialization and economic growth is enormous, therefore, we can expect that given the tax exemption and cheap electricity, Gwadar would become an industrial, trade and economic hub in the days to come. Establishment of oil and gas refineries and communication network would further boost the uplift of the area. Through a Pak-China deal, initial planning to build a railway line across the Khunjrab pass alongside the Karakorum highway has already started.
Regarding the vitality of the Gwadar port, Robert Kaplan, the US analyst, says; that, Gwadar’s development would either unlock the riches of Central Asia, or plunge Pakistan into a savage, and potentially terminal, civil war. It appears that Pakistan’s desires to unlock the riches of Central Asia and conversion of the port to a global economic hub, has invited the wrath of the global conspirators. However, we have to crush the conspiracies for the promotion of our national interests. In order to do that, the nation will have to differentiate between enemies, and the real friends.
Prospects
According to Mr Masood Khan, Pakistani Ambassador to China, “Pakistan supports China’s vision of a harmonious world–a world that works for win-win partnerships instead of win-lose paradigms.”xlix Indeed, despite of having different social setup, ideologies and religion, Sino-Pak bi-lateral relationship has stood the test of time. The main feature of this closer tie is that, irrespective of the internal situation and the form of the government in Pakistan, “leaders of both the countries attach great importance and give personal care to the relationship.”l In the wordings of the former Chinese ambassador to Pakistan, both countries in fact observe “Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence. We respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. We never interfere in each other’s internal affairs. We always consult each other about major issues on an equal basis. And, we conduct cooperation to mutual benefit. There is no clash of interests between China and Pakistan.”li
Pakistan deeply appreciates the support and assistance, China has given for our economic and social development. We fully support China’s principled stand on Taiwan, Tibet, Xinjiang, and other human rights issues. Chinese Government and people reciprocate these sentiments and consider Pakistan to be their most reliable friend and partner. Developing relations with Pakistan is high on China’s diplomatic agenda. China supports Pakistan’s efforts in safeguarding its sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity. The fuel for this relationship comes from the hearts and minds of the people. The prudent, farsighted policies of their governments buttress it through multiple frameworks.
Conclusion
There exists unparallel harmony of interests between people and the both Governments on political, diplomatic, economic and security aspects. In order to face the rapidly changing global politics, both countries need to “overcome challenges and carry forward our traditional friendship.” Sino-Pak all-weather friendship is based on complete trust, mutual understanding and convergence of views on all issues. This sentiment resounds in the psyche of our people and is passing on from generation to generation. Our relationship has evolved into a long-term strategic partnership aimed at promoting peace, stability and prosperity in the region. “Pakistan plumes the great achievements of the Chinese people which attest to the genius, wisdom and talents of the Chinese people and their sagacious leadership.” Right from the beginning, the bi-lateral relationship between the two countries has remained as a relatively uninterrupted, trust-bond and all weather. It is said that friendship between Pakistan and China is “deeper than the oceans, and higher than the mountains.” Over the years, this friendship has survived numerous geo-political and geo-strategic changes which took place at the global and regional level.
It is considered view of the political analysts that, “Pak-China friendship is based on four pillars; geography, history, economics and necessity.” Indeed, owing to the geographical contiguity, we are neighbours, whereas history has made us friends. Likewise; economics has made us partners, whereas, necessity has made us allies. In the words of Mr. Luo Zhaohui, Chinese Ambassador to Pakistan, “China-Pakistan relations have become an example of harmonious coexistence between countries of different civilizations. We view our relations with Pakistan in strategic terms and from a long terms perspective. Let’s join hands and work hard to usher in a much brighter tomorrow of Sino-Pak friendship and cooperation”.
End Notes
I. Masood Khan, Ambassador of Pakistan to China, “Pakistan-China friendship: a lush tree” published in the Beijing Review May 31, 2011. Pakistan-China friendship a lush tree: ambassador khan, Current, current political, social, military and economic news, May 31, 201.
ii. Barry Turner, the Statesman’s Year Book-2011, Macmillan Publishers Ltd, 2010. P. 313.
iii. Ibid.
iv. China: Power and Perils, Michael McCullar (ed), STRATFOR, Grant Perry, USA, 2010.
v. Encyclopedia Britannica (11th edition), 2011, Classical Encyclopedia. Can be accessed at; http://www.1911encyclopedia.org/Hsuan_Tsang
vi. E.W. Gilbert, The Right Honourable Sir Halford J. Mackinder P. C 1861-1947, Geographical Journal, Vol. 127, No. 1, Mar., 1961.
vii. Meena Singh Roy, Pakistan’s Strategies in Central Asia, Strategic Analysis, Volume: 30 Issue: 4, Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis- Strategic Affairs, October 2006.
viii. Aparna Panda, Explaining Pakistan’s Foreign Policy, Routledge Taylor & Francis Group, London and New York, 2011. P. 117.
ixAbdul Sattar, Pakistan’s Foreign Policy-1947-2009, Oxford University Press, 2010. P. 13. p. 44.
x. Masood Khan, Ambassador of Pakistan to China, “Pakistan-China friendship: a lush tree” published in the Beijing Review May 30, 2011.
xi. Editorial Samarth, May 23, 2011. Can be accessed at; http://editorialsamarth.blogspot.com/2011/05/editorial-230511.html.
xii. Abdul Sattar, Pakistan’s Foreign Policy-1947-2009, Oxford University Press, 2010. P. 76.
xiii. Ibid. p. 78.
xiv. Lin Shanglin, “Pakistan-China Relation”, Pakistan Horizon (Karachi), vol. 54, no. 3 (July 2001), p. 13.
xv. Ibid.
xvi. Prime Minister Wen Jiabao’s address with the Joint Session of Pakistani Parliament, dated 19 December, 2010.
xvii. Key developments in Sino-Pakistani relations, November 25, 2006, China Daily. Can be accessed at;
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2006-11/25/content_742817.htm.
xviii. Jeffrey T. Richelson (ed), China and the United States: From Hostility to Engagement, 1960-1998, National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book No. 18, September 24, 1999. Available at; http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB19/
xix. China, Pakistan sign treaty for friendship, cooperation and good-neighbourly relations, People’s Daily, April 6, 2005
xx. Ibid.
xxi. Dr. Noor ul Haq (ed), China-Pakistan Relations: A Profile of Friendship, Islamabad Policy Research Institute, April 11, 2005.
xxii. Daily Dawn, April 6, 2005.
xxiii. Pauline Kerr, Stuart Harris, and Qin Yaqing (ed), China’s “New” Diplomacy: Tactical or Fundamental Change? Palgrave Macmillan, 2008. P. 223.
xxiv. Abdul Sattar, Pakistan’s Foreign Policy-1947-2009, Oxford University Press, 2010. P. 13.
xxv. Mohammad Ali Jinnah, Speeches as Governor General, 1947-48, Ferozsons, Karachi. P. 11.
xxviDocuments from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, “China’s Initiation of the Five Principles of Peaceful Co-Existence”, November 17, 2000.
xxvii. Ibid.
xxviii. Ibid.
xxix. Ibid.
xxx. Alastair Iain Johnston and Robert S. Ross, (ed), New Direction in the Study of China’s Foreign Policy, Stanford University Press California, 2006. P. 89.
xxxi. Xu Yan, Zhong Yin Bianjie Zhi Zhan Lishi Zhenxiang (True History of the Sino-Indian Border War), Cosmos Books, Hong Kong, 1993. Pp. 28-29.
xxxii. Daily Dawn, December 16, 2010.
xxxiii. Micheal McCullar, China: Power and Perils Stratfor, Grant Perry; 2010.
xxxiv. Beijing will ‘never give up’ Islamabad: Pakistan, China ink $35bn Deals, Daily Times, December 19, 2010.
xxxv. Masood Khan, Ambassador of Pakistan to China, “Pakistan-China friendship: a lush tree” published in the Beijing Review May 31, 2011. Pakistan-China friendship a lush tree: ambassador khan, Current, current political, social, military and economic news, May 31, 201.
xxxvi. Ibid.
xxxvii. Prime Minister Wen Jiabao Address with the Joint Session of Pakistani Paliament, December 19, 2010. Covered as “China Praises Pakistan’s Efforts in Fight against Terrorism” The Express Tribune, 20 December 2010.
xxxviii. Ibid.
xxxix. Masood Khan, Ambassador of Pakistan to China, A Lush Tree: Pakistan-China Friendship Thrives over the Past Six Decades, Beijing Review, May 26, 2011.
xl. Ibid.
xli. Ibid.
xlii. SCO Tashkent Summit Concludes, (Xinhua), China Daily, June 11, 2010.
xliii. Shanghai Cooperation Organization, an introduction. Can be accessed at; http://shanghai-cooperation-organisation.co.tv/with
xliv. China says Pakistan’s’ nuclear deal ‘peaceful’ BBC, June 17, 2010.
xlv. Dr Raja Muhammad Khan, Hampering Pak-China nuclear deal, Pakistan Observer, June 28, 2010.
xlvi. Kaswar Klasra, Pak-China N-coop to continue, The Nation, June 18, 2010. Spokesperson of FO Pak, Jun 17, 2010.
xlvii. Mohammad Jamil, Pak-China N-cooperation, Pakistan Observer, July 3, 2010.
xlviii. Kalbe Ali, Govt urged to scrap Gwadar port deal, Dawn, Jan 3, 2010.
xlix. Masood Khan, Ambassador of Pakistan to China, A Lush Tree: Pakistan-China Friendship Thrives over the Past Six Decades, Beijing Review, May 26, 2011.
l. Ibid.
li. Abstracted from the text of the speech delivered by H.E. Mr. Luo Zhaohui, former Chinese Ambassador to Pakistan, on ‘New China’s Foreign Policy and Sino-Pak Relations’ at the Institute of Strategic Studies, Islamabad (ISSI), on October 1, 2009.
