Sunday, November 24, 2024

The Clamour for Change

Travelling abroad one hears a constant refrain about Pakistan, when is the anticipated change going to take place, and how is it going to happen? Even non-Pakistanis interested in Pakistan felt that something had to give and soon. Talking to the “Geneva Asia Society” in Geneva, and then at a fund-raiser for David Miliband in London, those in the audience were surprisingly perceptive, even though some of their perceptions were based more on rumour than on fact.

There is unanimous agreement that the government of the day lacks credibility. No one seemed sure about how trust in governance could be restored in Pakistan, only that anything, or anyone, would be better than our present rulers. Martial Law was decried vehemently as an option, however almost anyone one talked to were resigned to that eventuality as the ultimate option if Pakistan were to be saved from extinction as a nation. The Pakistan Army is immensely appreciated within the country and outside for having performed admirably, nobody sees Kayani as a potential “Martial Law Administrator”. However, one cannot really fathom the depths of ambition, stranger things have happened! Everyone agrees that while the Army should support the change whenever it should happen, they have no business running the business of government. In the present circumstances of trust deficit in govt, compared to Zardari even the much-vilified Pervez Musharraf is now looking good.

For the first time in many years, counter-insurgency operations and countering terrorism got a back-seat, even the devastating floods and the dire need for adequate relief and rehabilitation does not get the focus of most discussions, the trust deficit in government does. People across the board in many nations from all walks of life are engaged in the effort raising funds for the affected. Turks were asked to reach deep in their pockets to help Pakistan, we were mobbed by common people wanting to help. The small hitch, who could be trusted with money being collected to reach the flood victims? As the bad cop Asif Ali-Zardari previously was the focus of the bile generated against corruption and nepotism, Gilani was the good cop with the Teflon-hide deflecting criticism. Today there is unanimity that the Zardari-Gilani combine are one and same, and both cannot be trusted. Why did the Mian Nawaz Sharif-suggested “Flood Relief Commission” become still-born?

There is deep appreciation about the Supreme Court (SC) of Pakistan emphasizing the rule of law, however there is overwhelming skepticism whether the apex court could, and/or would, get their judgments implemented, particularly the one concerning the NRO. This despite their Lordships recent moves to assert themselves. More importantly, there was concern about the ambiguity, and even anxiousness, about the mechanism of enforcement. The SC is on a fine-line, can they gauge the growing frustration seething through the intelligentsia and masses alike if they are unable to bring the people’s aspirations to fulfillment? If this should boil over, then anarchy, already in suspended animation, would become a reality.

Man-made disasters of insurgency and terrorism and natural disasters like earthquakes and floods notwithstanding, the even greater catastrophe is the unraveling Coalition in Sindh exacerbating ethnic tensions by targetted killings and the non-Baloch population in Balochistan being subjected to unabated violence driving them out of the Province in tens of thousands. The western democracies are greatly seized of the fact that even resorting to martial law would be unable to cope with resulting chaos and confusion. In the campaign that David Cameron led in the EU in Brussels to give Pakistan better access to markets, he emphasized this was badly needed to sustain democracy in Pakistan. What he probably meant was, to sustain Pakistan as a nation!

Pervez Musharraf

Another Muslim League faction may come into existence when Pervez Musharraf “officially” enters politics on Oct 1 in London. Given the politics he practices while in uniform, that by itself is a travesty. His fabricated claims of having “combat experience” notwithstanding, where is his courage in finding it convenient to stay out of harm’s way even as he wants to lead the country out of the morass that he himself is primarily responsible for? The ground reality is that in the two primary institutions that will have major input in any change, if and when it should take place, the last martial law administrator, albeit by another name of “chief executive”, is virtually persona non-grata. Nevertheless, it is shocking that within two years of removing an unelected dictator, Zardari as an elected dictator may possibly suffer the same fate as the person he deposed, someone who now fancies himself as the “Comeback Kid”.

Asif Ali Zardari became President only because Musharraf enacted the black law called the National Reconciliation Order (NRO), when repeatedly exhorted (my article “LONELINESS AT THE TOP“ of Aug 12, 2008) to repeal it and restore Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry to the SC before he left the seat of power, Musharraf did not do so. He put his own survival before that of the country. Zardari has marginalized Pakistan’s most popular leader Mian Sharif into a state of virtual political limbo, perfecting the art of filibuster he has mastered the instinct of survival while successfully frustrating SC judgments. This has been some performance. One has to admire such resilience, if only he could use his faculties and capabilities for the good of Pakistan. This country badly needs good governance, the corruption this govt has institutionalized has become so endemic that it may already be impossible to stop the creeping anarchy gradually enveloping us. The prime beneficiary of NRO refuses to declare his assets as President or the source of his vast income that fairly credible rumours say has allowed him (even while his countrymen drowned in floods and poverty) to recently purchase the most expensive and prestigious address in London (I, Hyde Park or is it 44-68 Knightsbridge?).

The perceived light at the end of the tunnel is not emanating from Musharraf, the light may originate from a combination of many unlikely sources. Governance at the lower end of the public spectrum is exercised through bureaucracy, in particular the Provincial Civil Service (PCS) and the Provincial Police Service (PPS). Fed up of the rank injustice and the blatant discrimination meted out to them for over 60 years by a miniscule but powerful minority in the Federal bureaucracy who have retained absolute power during times of democracy and marital law alike, these officers have finally begun to stand up for their fundamental rights. If they go through with their protest they will act as a catalyst rather than as the agents for change.

For democracy to be sustained, and the country to continue to exist, change is necessary. Change should come from within the system, upsetting the system may put the country under threat. The government continues to live under the delusion that they can survive by resorting to repeated filibuster as a matter of policy. They are in for a shock, change is inevitable and will take place, preferably through application of rule of law but if not, without it. The alternate is anarchy, spurning the rule of law for that available with the mob in the streets!

Courtesy: The News

Ikram Sehgal
The writer is a defence and security analyst, he is Co-Chairman Pathfinder Group, Patron-in-Chief Karachi Council on Foreign Relations (KCFR) and the Vice Chairman Board of Management Quaid-e-Azam House Museum (Institute of Nation Building).

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