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As we were going into print, Indians exploded a series of nuclear devices on May 11 and 13, 1998. While it is too late to study the whole aspect in this issue, the next one will be devoted to the Bomb. In the meantime I am reproducing my article KEEPING ONE'S COOL from THE NATION as a food for thought. While restraint is advisable, Indians have escalated matters so that we may have no choice but to reluctantly go quid pro quo and explode a nuclear device.

India carried out two more controlled explosions on May 13, 1998 to add to the three already done on May 11. In the face of severely adverse world opinion, it seems the Indians have gone berserk - or is there more to their madness than meets the eye? For the record, the later two blasts, which were low kiloton yield nuclear devices, perhaps to carry out battlefield stimulation of a fusion trigger device for the larger thermo-nuclear bomb, were a defiant kick in the teeth for international opinion. A spate of condemnation followed including sanctions by US and Japan as well as the cancellation of aids and grants by Australia, New Zealand, Norway, Germany, Sweden, etc. Notably the European Union (EU) countries resigned themselves to criticizing the Indians but did not follow the 'sanctions' route. The Indians miscalculated the depth of international reaction but by managing to keep EU out of the sanctions mode they broke the dam and contained immediate irretrievable damage.

Mian Nawaz Sharif's government is under pressure domestically to carry out a nuclear explosion. A wide ranging coalition including politicians, retired bureaucrats, intellectuals, columnists, etc is strongly advising the Pakistan Government to go head to head with India. What is more compelling is the attitude of the man in the street, he wants a Pakistani bomb to explode. They have very cogent arguments in their favour. Pakistan exists in a very dangerous region of the world. Other than the wars in the immediate proximity, the Iran-Iraq conflict and the continuing Afghan War as well as the Khalistan Movement (Indian Punjab) and Kashmir, we have an implacable foe with a numerical superiority ratio of 4:1 (and even 5:1 in some areas) with respect to conventional forces (given that a favourable military attack ratio is 3:1). The BJP manifesto spoke about the nuclear arming of India, they are well on their way, the manifesto is also clear on seizing from Pakistan the part of Kashmir not occupied by them already. Now with the nuclear sword in hand, they can very well atomic-blitz Pakistan if we risk all-out war over Kashmir. More than the logical reasons is the psychological one, Pakistani mass opinion demands equal manhood with India and that is, if they can explode a bomb, why can't we? There is also the question of 'mutually assured deterrence' (MAD). There is always the possibility that if we do not explode the bomb the Indians will assume we are bluffing and therefore gamble with trying to accomplish the other cornerstone of their manifesto, knowing that they may come off better in a conventional war given the acute military disparities. The Indians will certainly suffer enormous losses without much gain on the ground, are they prepared for that amount of collateral damage in men and material? The fact that the BJP leaders took on the world in the nuclear blasts - and their newly elected leader Thakre is vocal about Kashmir - should make us apprehensive about their intentions. A nuclear blast by us will not be a display of show of force but perversely will be a logical outcome of caution on our part. That may be the only way to warn India against the consequence of adventurism.

The world presently wants us to roll over and play dead, to accept India's hegemony in the region, to behave like the other SAARC Countries and stay in line with Indian tutelage. For that they may be proposing to give us some guarantees and some economic/military sops. In the 1980s we lost a golden opportunity to economically/militarily reach emancipation. As the front line State for the West in their proxy war in Afghanistan, Pakistan did not get any of the recurring and residual economic and military benefits that countries like Thailand, Philippines, Singapore, Indonesia, etc got from the US during the height of the Viet Nam War. Prepared to go any lengths in the proxy year, the US quickly discovered that our leaders had a low personal price, their penchant was for filling their own pockets or receiving favours, than for negotiating a better deal for Pakistan. Some of the riches on display by a retired general's sons of that era have no other origin but were funds meant for Pakistan and the Afghan War being pilfered/diverted into private coffers. For a few pennies, our leaders sold our short-term and long-term interests down the river.

The choices before us before we explode the bomb are very clear, either we accept to live as virtual slaves like the rest of South Asia or the west can take concrete steps to not only assuage our fears but to give us the capability to defend ourselves. The initial steps have already been taken by some of the western countries, imposing economic sanctions, the main prop of which is suspending aid and grants particularly US/Japan support for loans by international landing institutions. Already the EU, led by UK, has shown it is not even prepared to go that far. However, if US and Japan would impose trade sanctions on India this would make a considerable difference because they are India's largest trading partners. Firstly it would hurt India more economically and secondly we could derive some benefit from trade (and investment) diversions. However, even though an official US spokesman has gone so far as to condemn Indian leaders for their duplicity (a fact we have been repeating ad nauseam over the years), in the long run these sanctions will most probably be shrugged off by India.

What happens if we explode the bomb? Other than a few days of euphoria, it does send a message to the Indians, that our potential is not bluff and that they should be prepared for the consequences in collateral damage. Whether one bullet kills you or a dozen, once you are dead you tend to remain dead. We may be a smaller country and India may have more bombs, the devastation will be mutually horrifying and devastating. That more than any other reason may deter BJP from adventurism. However, if we do explode the bomb, for which the BJP and every other Indian must be praying for invoking all their various gods, it will take the Indians off the hook. The Indians will never be blamed for passing on nuclear secrets but we shall be accused for giving away this knowledge to Iran, Libya, Iraq, Sudan, etc - anyone that the west labels as 'terrorist friendly' states. The world's anger will well up against us and we will be vilified from pillar to post. The EU nations, which are treating India with kid gloves because it is a vast industrial and consumer market, will turn on us like a pack of wolves. The economic sanctions that the world imposes on us will be more akin to the economic quarantine of Iraq presently - since we do not have the benefit of oil it will hit us far more badly. We will eventually become economically so weak we will not be able to maintain even a weak deterrent force - India thus could walk over us at will! For a few days of chest - beating and a rather stretched logic as regards deterrence, are we prepared to eat grass - and eventually humble pie?

The government must be commended on its rather sophisticated and patient handling of the situation uptil now. The west is alternately showing us carrot and stick, let's test this potency by clearly spelling out that there is a cost price to restraint and it must include a comprehensive package, foremost by giving us the means to conventionally defend ourselves against India. That while we will not go ahead and explode the bomb, the guarantee of a nuclear umbrella by the west can only be counter- guaranteed by our own ability to have and to use nuclear weapons if the west deserts us in our hour of need. Not only sanctions against India must be made more effective but we should be shored up economically and militarily. Like Egypt and Turkey and other countries, our debt must be written off and we should beef up our conventional forces, particularly airpower. We must have focussed western investment in infra-structure such as roads, railways, telecommunications and ports, similarly like Egypt and Turkey we must get indigenous armament manufacturing capacity as required by us. Above all, the world must put pressure on India to solve the Kashmir problem. If the economic sanctions are effective, the brunt of the misery that ensues will be borne by the masses. The language of the streets is the only language the BJP leaders will understand - that may make them more amenable to reason over Kashmir.

An economically and militarily strong Pakistan, capable of defending itself in a conventional war and with the option of going nuclear quickly in quid pro quo is the only deterrent India will respect. Before we follow the track of the hawks, we have to evaluate whether the compensation package includes tangible security and economic guarantees and whether an ill-conceived move in exploding the bomb without calculating the risks may not result in our eventual economic extinction. Someone has to negotiate hard to exploit this God-given opportunity the Indian leadership has provided us by their sheer obduracy.