Central Asia - Imperative of Cautious
Management of Geo-political Forces

Columnist Dr SM RAHMAN advises restraint in the
mobilisation of different economic and political forces
in central ASIA

A world without US primacy will be a world with more violence and disorder and less democracy and economic growth than world where the United States continues to have more influence than any other country in shaping global affairs. The sustained international primacy of the United States is central to the welfare and security of Americans and to the future of freedom, democracy, open economies and international order in the world.1

Viewed in this perspective USA has to play a crucial balancing role in Euroasia, as it contains 75 percent of the world's people and around 60 percent of world's GNP and about three-fourth of the world's known energy resources. Euroasia is thus the chessboard on which the struggle for global primacy continues to be played.2 Central Asian Republics comprising the heart of Euroasia are, therefore, crucial to maintaining USA's preponderance. If the middle space can be drawn increasingly into the expanding orbit of the West (where America preponderates), if the southern region is not subjected to domination by a single player and if the East is not unified in a manner that prompts the expansion of America from its offshore bases, American can then be said to prevail.3

Thus the new game plan envisages that France and Germany in the west should unitedly serve the interest of USA and that Russia, China and India should be so managed that they do not get united against the hegemonistic hold of USA. In other words, on the Chessboard of Euro-Asia, USA as the global leader will prescribe roles and power for the key players of the region and also for the pivotal states like Iran & Turkey who will play limited roles. Thus, Central Asia faces a new dilemma. While in the pre-independence stage, it was controlled by one imperial lord-USSR- but in the post-freedom phase, it has to cope up with a new and complex power equations, which suits the overall interest of USA in Euro-Asia. Such is the price nations have to pay when they lose their cohesive force and civilizational anchorage.

It is no secret to the world that Muslims were at the apex of power and glory when Europe was deeply immersed into ignorance and backwardness. To quote Mahathir Bin Mohammad: By comparison with the Muslims of the period, the Europeans were indeed primitive, superstitious and anything but liberal. They were certainly feudal and oppressive. Their oppressive governments led their own christian subjects to welcome conquests. Even the jews preferred to live under Muslims rule and left Spain together with the Muslims to settle in North Africa. All these must indicate the tolerance and liberalism of Muslims and their governments in the past, in the great days of the Muslim Empire.4

It is indeed no ordinary achievement that the Muslims ruled over Spain for 800 years and much of Eastern Europe for about 400 years. It is a fact that once upon a time, says Mahathir, that there was a great Muslim empire. It is also a fact that empire is no more. Defeats in the fields of battle and in the conduct of diplomatic relations had not only whittled the empire down but had broken up the Empire into effective Muslim states, which for a period of time became colonies of western powers. The fragmentation and colonization of the Muslim world is no doubt due to the machinations of the Europeans and their military power. It was the Europeans who manoeuvered the Arabs into fighting against the Turks for their independence.5

Central Asia, which was once the bastion of Muslim grace, refinement and sophistication, and a rich reservoir of cultural heritage not only fell from that pedestal but remained practically insulated from the rest of the Muslim communities of the world for a period of long seventy years in the tight-jacket-control, exercised over them by the erstwhile Soviet Union. It was the worst possible cultural weaning that the people went through. Not only was contact and cultural interaction practically frozen, every possible print and pride of being bound together in a broader Muslim identity was systematically crushed and attempt was made to atomize them into different identities, with an overpowering superstructure of Soviet sensibility. Assault on the identity of individual is the basic pre-requisite for scientific brain-washing technique. But repressions often are double edged swords. Internal simmering created counter-reaction whenever the grip loosens due to the whittling down of inner reservoir of power, thoughtlessly consumed in overblowing of the outer structure, without adequate economic anchor of sustenance.

Paradoxically, the repressive measures which are meant to control individuals or nations breed different patterns of defiance. Open rebellion is not the only way out. As Sadowski points out: ... East Europeans, while adapting to the realities of communism, never fully internalized its value. Societies remained committed to their procommunist political cultures at least in their private if not their public lives. During the stable periods, citizens employed certain mechanisms of accommodation, such as the informal networks... That helped them cope with what most considered to be an illegitimate political system.6 More or less a similar modality was adopted by the Central Asian Muslims, in coping with the imperatives of imposed socio-economic and political programme, having no attitudinal harmony with their Weltanschauung - which places a transcendental power at the centre of all things and to whom the absolute knowledge belongs. The conflict was resolved by taking recourse to compliance - only a behavioural manifestation without internalizing the mundane values into the deeper recesses of their being. The power of the powerless thus prevailed and one sees how their preserved cherished beliefs and values are manifesting in a remarkably balanced manner, integrating the needs and compulsions of the material life as well as the ontological yearnings of the soul. The focus is in seeking equilibrium between this life and the life hereafter. Shunning one or the other is repugnant to Central Asian sensibility and this distinctive orientation makes the people of Central Asia immune to any obscurantist outlook or any radical commitment. This identity, is essentially an achievement and what is achieved tends to be valued, unlike the one which is a 'gift' through biological or historical endowment.

Periods of transitions are inherently fluid in nature and the relative unstructured pattern is prone to be interpreted the way one is predisposed to do so. Perceptions in such situations are highly selective as the perceiver is hardly free from his prejudices and biases. Depressive views and apprehensions have been voiced by many western strategic analysts. For example Fuller of the Rand Cooperation, make some observations, which are of interest to note: 7

* [At] the present time, differences and suspicions among the republics, and the weight of seventy years of divided existence, complicate the prospect of regional unification. Economic necessity may soon spur the hasty emergence of some kind of regional organization. But not such regional federation or confederation will be able to resolve internal conflicts and differences for a long time to come.

* The source of greatest volatility in the Central Asian Republics will be the presence of their huge Russian minorities. Kazakhstan, is by far the most sensitive of these republics and there the possibility of future ethnic conflict is at is highest.

* The transition from totalitarian Communist Party rule to multiparty states and a more democratic order will not come without a struggle. This whole period will be very rocky under almost any circumstances.

* If events go badly, Islamic fundamentalism could emerge strongly in the region with negative impacts on Russia, China, India and political dynamics of the rest of the Islamic world. It could also spark increased Russian chauvinism in response.

* Nuclear proliferation remains a distinct possibility, given the skills that have likely been imparted to a number of Central Asian technicians.

As if the above were not enough, the author also points out to 'the possibility of military conflict among the republics themselves and of military conflict between Russia and Central Asia over ethnic, territorial and the resource questions particularly in Kazakhstan.' 8 He also builds a frightening scenario: [an] extension of the process of ethnic breakup, already sparked by the formation of new republics in Central Asia, that could indirectly lead to such developments as the breakaway of ethnically related northern Afghanistan to join Central Asian neighbours. The breakup of Afghanistan would then provoke ethnic struggles in Pakistan, Iran and the Western border areas of China.9

To the credit of the analyst, however, goes a relatively objective observation: Despite Washington's preference to keep Iranian influence in Central Asia to an absolute minimum, realistically it will not happen. Geopolitically, Iran is the single most important country to Central Asia after Russia, since it represents the primary overland link to the Persian Gulf, Turkey and the West. It's industrial experience and skills will be of valued to Central Asia. yet Iran will also certainly emphasise its credo of political Islam and will attempt to redirect the Central Asian republics away from a western orientation. It will not likely be able to export its brand of theocratic to its northern neighbours.10 It may, however, the mentioned that Iran itself is not that theocratic as he seems to depict. The process of liberalization is the patent reality, which is emerging under the present enlightened leadership in Iran.

The perception of some of the Central Asian watchers, generally-western,- tend to reflect a mind-set, which is prone to seeing a glass half empty rather than a glass half full. The optimists, who take the latter orientation, seem to give due credit to the leaders at the helm of affairs in quite dexterously steering their respective republics, despite the impediments, hurdles and frictions on their way to a smooth transition and a 'fine' landing. The attitudinal prerequisites for this 'flight' have been quite imaginatively expressed by Kazakhstan's President - Nazarbayev - whose country is being projected as a simmering volcano of ethnic strifes. On domestic stability he says:   My policy is one of common sense: Don't give priority to any ethnic group, if the trash of ethnic conflict isn't introduced from the outside, nothing will happen here.11

The irony is that those who wish to fish in the troubled waters will not lose any opportunity to fan dissensions so that peace and stability remain elusive. Conflicts are intellectualized through prestigious scholars like Samuel Huntington who are out to create fertile grounds for arms dealers to have profit bonanza and keep their industries flourishing. Asian countries are thus doomed to live under the shadow of looming insecurity. Left to itself, Kazakhstan has avoided inter ethnic atrocities and serves as a more or less vivid example of new World Order State where representatives of different ethnic groups can co-exist, irrespective of overall tension in the world between Muslims and Christians.12 Surely there is an ethnic conflict in Tajikistan but a fair and impartial assessment of the situation would reveal that it is being contained in that very republic and its flames have not been allowed to cross the borders. This, in itself is a commendable achievement. On the question of facing economic challenges, President Nazarbayev, who represents the Central Asian ethos and climate of opinion makes it explicitly clear: I now remain true to my convictions that there can be no political independence or complete independence as some put it, without economic independence.13

It goes without saying that rich as they are in natural resources - oil wealth, gas and minerals - their march to prosperity is possible through creating infrastructures so that the resources are transported to the global market. For this the strategic routes must be tapped, evaluated and then constructed so that option is not limited to just one or two openings. It is always a strategic blunder to be over dependent on any single power, as it is likely to assume monopoly over the economic resources of the republic. Cooperation with USA, Russia, China, European countries, besides Iran, Turkey and Pakistan - who are interwoven in historical, cultural and religious ties - must remain an abiding commitment. Hands of friendship need be extended to all the nations of the world, who want to join in a cooperative venture to exploit the resources for altering the predicament of the common man, who must remain the focus of all developments. Money and profit are not ends in themselves. They are only means to meet the needs of the general population and not to create a favoured category of entrepreneurs. Cooperation with other countries will open up vast opportunities of developing communication infrastructure as well as facilitating trade with different parts of the world. While it is important to extract oil, gas and mineral resources and export to the global market, equal emphasis also need to be given for development of industrial sectors so that production could ensure a sustainable economic development. In other words, there is a need not to emulate the Gulf and Middle East model of basing the entire economic structure on export of the oil wealth, which in turn, makes the oil producers amenable to exploitation by the oil-hungry rich nations of the world, who dictate prices, very often, at their terms.

Simultaneously along with regional and extra-regional economic cooperation, there is even greater need to promote culture of cooperation among the republic themselves, to determine their production priorities to their mutual benefits. Acquisition of advanced technology is also a vital imperative. According to a Study by Asia Society (Charles Undeland and Nicholas Platt): the Central Asian Republics will have to reach agreements among themselves over the basic issues of sharing the region's limited water resources and infrastructure. 14

What one may not agree with the authors is that the differences within the region appear to preclude the formation of a political bloc, more populous and central Uzbekistan is likely to exert significant influence on its a smaller neighbours to the South and East (as it already is doing in Tajikistan).15

There is no manifestation of dominance, so far, by one republic over the other, Tajikistan, of course, is undergoing internecine conflict but its determinants flow from outside the constellation of the republics - from Moscow mainly - which is making a desperate bid to retain a quantum of its influence, in what it terms the near abroad. Jockeying for influence seem to be the overriding concern as the authors further comment: The magnetism of Central Asia's natural wealth is attracting help and attention from other countries of the world. The future will depend on the extent to which the resources and management skills become available from the West, and the speed to which they can be put to use by local leaders under the watchful and suspicious eye of a Russia competing for the same kind of attention. Those republics that are able to balance these forces, and attain political and economic stability, will become hubs in their own right and create a new center of trade and investment at the heart of the Eurasian landmass.'16

Implicit in the above statement is the assumption that Russia will jealously guard against the western influence and that a kind of cold war scenario is likely to reemerge in the region. The indications are to the contrary. The regional leaders are exhibiting the sagacity and farsightedness not to fall prey to such machinations, which will restrict their movements towards opening up to the entire world, after excruciating insulation that their republics have gone through. Not only with the West and Russia there is a determined effort to build to cordial ties with China as well. Uzbekistan's President Karimov hailed China as a great nation, a great people and a great civilization.17 What is intended to convey is that any predilection to lean heavily on any single power, would disturb the equilibrium which is presently quite facilitative to the speeder economic development of the region.

Security is best ensured through economic cooperation with the republics and the regional countries. There is also a need to develop strategic thought through dialogue and interaction to help achieve consensus on issues vital to peace and security. For resolving conflict, which to some extent do exist, but are often exaggerated out of proportion, there is a need to institutionalize crisis management on a permanent footing. This would help ward off interference of regional and extra-regional powers. A very significant leap forward has been taken by the president of Kazakhstan in promoting the idea of Conference on Interaction and Confidence building Measures in Asia (CICA), in its first meeting in April 1993 and second one in August-September 1993. These were attended by ten countries and two international organizations in the first experts meeting and twenty four representatives (seven of them as observers) and four international organization in the second meeting.

The CICA, adheres to the chapter VIII of UN Charter, which caters for regional arrangement for dealing with matters related to the maintenance of international peace and security, in conformity with the Purposes and Principles of the United Nations. The draft of the Declaration on the Principles of Relations among the CICA member states, have determined broad parameters such as, sovereign equality and respect for rights in sovereignty of the states; refraining from the threat or use a force; respect for territorial integrity of member states; commitment to peaceful settlement of disputes and non-interference in the internal affairs of the member states. Besides promoting these lofty democratic norms and values, the Asian countries would also undertake pragmatic measures for disarmament and arms control, entailing a pledge to support efforts for the creation of nuclear free zone as well as missile free zones, and above all, charting a comprehensive programme for economic and cultural cooperation, on an equal, mutually beneficial and non-discriminatory basis.

CICA, in essence fulfills the need for Asian United Nations to facilitate Asia's emergence as a vital player in the 21st century global arena. The Pacific century dream appears to be coming true. To those who appear to be skeptic, one would like to quote from the renowned historian Hitti: 'If some one in the first third of the 7th Christian century had the audacity of prophesy that within a decade or so some unheralded, unforseen power from the hitherto barbarous and little known land of Arabia was to make its appearance, hurl itself against the only two world powers of the age, fall heir to the one (the Sasanid) and strip the other (the Byzantine) of its fairest provinces, he would undoubtedly have been declared a lunatic. Yet that was exactly what happened'.

Central Asia may emerge a catalyst to effect that eventuality, provided it fulfills what Jefferson proclaimed in his First Inaugural Address: Peace, Commerce and honest friendship with all nations - entangling alliances with none.